FXUS66 KMTR 081819
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1119 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Hot temperatures continue for the inland Central Coast, gradually
cooling off elsewhere over the next several days. More substantial
cooldown towards the end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1118 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

The upper-level ridge is slowly moving out of our region and a
troughing pattern will take influence. Temperatures this morning
were reporting 2-11 degrees lower than yesterday. The deepening of
the trough and onshore flow will help return the marine layer
tonight bringing low clouds along the coast and will extend further
into the valleys. Therefore, expect another round of gloomy morning
Friday, with clear skies making a appearance mid to late morning.
This will allow for temperatures to trend a bit cooler tonight into
Friday. Tonight temperatures will be in the 50s and low 60s with
higher terrains reaching up to 70s. Friday will be similar to
today with maximum temperatures in the 80s and 90s, with higher
terrains seeing triple digits. Along the coast will remain
relatively consistent with temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1118 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

As we move towards the weekend, cluster analysis show agreement that
the trough will continue to deepen and the marine layer will
continue to move further inland this weekend into early next
week. This will continue the cooling trend allowing temperatures
to stay pretty consistent. Temperatures will decrease by 1-3
degrees each day but will stay in the 80s and low 90s in the
interior, and high 50s to 60s along the coast. Relative humidity
recoveries will also increase, helping ease some fire weather
concerns. Onshore winds will continue to remain on the breezy
during the afternoon hours this weekend, with possible gusty winds
near the passes and valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Mix of VFR, IFR, and LIFR. A mix of low clouds hovering near the
coast and passing high clouds, is causing ceilings to stick around
longer. Expect clearing near 19Z for KOAK, but KMRY may remain
socked in for the entire TAF period. For the remaining terminals, as
the marine layer continues to deepen, expect another round of low
clouds early tonight with clearing time near 17-18Z on Friday for
all terminals, except Monterey Bay. Onshore breezy winds this
afternoon, then winds diminish to light to moderate overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with a return of low ceilings near 05Z. There
is a chance for MVFR/IFR conditions but with low confidence and
model disagreement, a TEMPO group was included to indicate a chance
for low CIGS. Higher confidence that IFR will prevail after 12Z,
then clear near 17Z. Onshore breezy winds will become moderate late
tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR conditions continue for KMRY with
low confidence on clearing. Models show near 21Z but there is a
fair chance that low ceilings will linger through the TAF period.
KSNS is expecting a return of low CIGs near 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1118 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Expect increasing winds into the weekend from the northwest with
raising seas. These winds will build rough seas over the outer
waters. Winds and seas begin to ease into the next work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Friday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Murdock

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