FXUS65 KBOI 160256
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
856 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms ended rapidly this
evening as a short wave trough in Oregon moved into eastern
WA. Warmer weather will occur the next two days as upper flow
changes from west to southwest Friday, and to nearly southerly
Saturday. High temps Saturday will be 95-100 degrees in the
lower southern valleys. Monsoon moisture will be kept east of
our CWA so skies will be mostly clear. Today's rain cleared some
of the smoke, but HRRR model shows it clearing even more during
the next two days, especially in southern areas Saturday. Smoke
will continue, however, near the fires to the north and northeast
of Boise. Current forecast is in good shape. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR, except localized MVFR/IFR and mountain
obscuration near wildfires. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or
less overnight, then SW to NW 5-10 kt Friday afternoon. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.


KBOI...VFR. Haze from distant wildfires. Surface winds: light
and variable overnight, then NW 5-10 kt Friday afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...VFR, except localized MVFR/IFR and mountain
obscuration near wildfires. High density altitude due to hot
temperatures, mainly Saturday. South-southwest winds aloft of
20-40 kt will produce gusty afternoon winds Sat/Sun across SE
Oregon and mountains of SW Idaho.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...A shortwave is
moving across eastern Oregon this afternoon, and is the focus of
showers and thunderstorms. The showers and thunderstorms will
slowly move NE tonight as the shortwave exits the area. Main
threats of storms will be gusty outflow winds to 50 mph, areas
of blowing dust, and new fire starts. Some of the high
resolution guidance still shows remnant thunderstorm outflows
moving across the Treasure Valley late this afternoon and
evening as the showers and storms weaken. Conditions dry out
tonight after sunset. Another weak disturbance brings a slight
chance of thunderstorms on Friday afternoon mainly north of a
line from southern Baker County OR to Banner Summit. Higher
terrain of SE Oregon could see cumulus buildups but otherwise
the area remains dry with high temperatures holding a few
degrees below normal. Strong southwest flow develops on
Saturday as a trough digs south along the Pacific Northwest
coast. Temperatures warm to around 5-10 degrees above normal
with 95-100 in the Snake Basin on Saturday. Southwest flow will
bring breezy and unstable conditions especially during the
afternoons, where a fire weather watch has been issued.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...A trough will remain off
the Pacific Northwest coast and a strong ridge over CO/NM will
keep strong southwest flow going over the region through the
long term. Southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon will remain in
a dry slot, with hot, very dry, and windy conditions expected
through the long term. Temperatures will be around normal to 5
degrees above normal through the period. Monsoon moisture should
stay east of Twin Falls through the period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening IDZ402-403.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening IDZ401>403-421.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening IDZ423-426.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT /9 PM PDT/ this evening
     ORZ636-637-646.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA