FXUS62 KILM 191043 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 643 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly move offshore through tonight, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms. Behind the front, slightly cooler and drier conditions will return for mid week as high pressure builds in from the north. A trough offshore should bring some rain to mainly coastal areas, especially starting later in the week. && .UPDATE... No big changes with the latest update. Clouds/rain are departing to the east with some low clouds/fog developing inland which will dissipate pretty soon after sunrise. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front is expected to slowly move into the area today, likely getting hung up due to daytime heating, before finally pushing offshore tonight. Ongoing showers/storms should mostly push offshore by daybreak but additional rain should develop again this afternoon/evening as the front interacts with the sea breeze and some more energy moves through aloft. However, instability should remain pretty weak so the risk for severe storms is very low despite low to moderate levels of deep layer shear. Most of the rain should be offshore by daybreak Tuesday with drier air moving in from the west. Highs today should be near 90 with lows tonight generally in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Gorgeous weather on the way this period, with unseasonably cool temperatures being the main feature here. High pressure from Ontario drops into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday evening, and then moves towards the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday night. This helps to usher in some of that cool Canadian air. Meanwhile, an upper low spinning in Quebec drops southward into NY and then pushes eastward towards New England. Heights at 500mb bottom out in the 580-583 dam range, which is near the 10th percentile of our local climatological records. The result is a cooler, drier forecast. High temperatures each day only hit the mid 80s, some 3-5 degrees below normal for mid-late August. Moisture continues to exit the column, but the seabreeze will try to squeeze out a stray shower or storm Tuesday afternoon. Don't know if there will be much success there, as the drier air will also be working with capping at 850mb to stifle rising parcels. The sweet, pumpkin spicy treat is in the nighttime lows, which drop to numbers we haven't seen in awhile. Tuesday night, look for lows in the mid 60s inland, upper 60s at the coast. We should have some pretty good radiational cooling that night, allowing some of the cold spots in parts of Bladen and Pender Counties to dip into the lower 60s. Wednesday night appears to have even better radiational cooling in play, where lows are a degree or two cooler. Those typical cold spots may even see the upper 50s. We'll be about a week and a half away from meteorological fall at that point, so the timing is appropriate. Finally, swells from Ernesto should finally start to pull away. Latest surf forecast reflects a moderate risk of rip currents for all area beaches Tuesday, with that risk looking to decrease Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper low over New England starts to pull off to the northeast Thursday, which finally erodes the trough over the eastern seaboard. Ridging over the Plains starts extending eastward into the Deep South, which will remain through the end of the period. Meanwhile, an inverted coastal trough looks to develop, which causes an increase in moisture. Scattered showers and storms possible again by Friday into the weekend, especially closer to the coast, which will have help from the seabreeze again. High temperatures very gradually start rising each day, but only by a degree or two. Lows edge up to the upper 60s inland, lower 70s at the coast. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions for the 12Z TAFs. Some fog/low clouds will impact the terminals early this morning, especially inland at KLBT/KFLO. Additional impacts from showers/storms are possible later this afternoon/evening as a cold front moves through and collides with the sea breeze. Winds will shift to the north overnight as the front moves offshore, with some lingering low-level moisture possibly yielding some sub-VFR stratus. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR Tuesday through Friday as high pressure builds from the north, although there is a low risk for restrictions from low clouds/showers, mainly later in the week near the coast. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...A cold front should remain inland today and then move through tonight. Should see improving conditions through the period as winds lighten and shift more westerly and swells continue to subside. Tuesday through Friday...Cool high pressure helps keep winds out of the NNE to NE throughout the extended period. Pressure gradient starts to tighten late Wednesday through Friday, as a weak coastal trough develops near the coastal waters. Winds increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts potentially hitting Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Seas at 2-3 ft decrease to 2 ft Tuesday night through Wednesday. Wind waves bring seas up to 3-5 ft by Thursday and Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Swells from Ernesto will continue to impact all beaches today. These swells will continue to create hazardous surf and strong rip currents, especially for the beaches north of Cape Fear. The threat looks to finally decrease by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/IGB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...