ACUS11 KWNS 202215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202215
NEZ000-SDZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Areas affected...southwestern South Dakota to the Nebraska Panhandle
vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202215Z - 202345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms from the Black Hills area south into the
Nebraska Panhandle are evolving, one or two of which may briefly be
capable of producing hail and/or strong wind gusts.  Coverage of the
risk should remain well below that needed to warrant WW
consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows very isolated storm development
over the Black Hills vicinity (in a northeasterly/upslope low-level
flow regime), and southward into the Nebraska Panhandle region in
the vicinity of a surface low.  The storms are initiating in an
environment that has heated/destabilized modestly, on the western
fringe the axis of greater low-level moisture/mixed-layer CAPE (1500
to 2500 J/kg north and east of the Black Hills, and southward into
western Nebraska).

The wind field across the area is backing with height, indicative of
cold advection north/northwest of the surface low.  Still, the
magnitude of the flow is sufficient to support some updraft
organization -- as observed within the Custer County, SD storm over
the past hour.  Though overall severe risk should remain low
overall, the potential for one or two storms to approach or slightly
exceed severe levels does exist, for the next couple of hours.

..Goss/Guyer.. 08/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   41570293 41890316 42680301 43700348 44010347 44240317
            43700196 42880108 41570118 41530189 41570293