FXUS65 KMSO 251924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
124 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave moving south out of British Columbia
will bring mostly cloudy conditions and slightly below normal
temperatures to much of the Northern Rockies this afternoon.
Southwest Montana and Lemhi County will see considerably less
clouds, which will allow for scattered showers this afternoon,
through sunset. A nice summer day is in store for Monday, with
ample sunshine and seasonable temperatures for this time of year.

A relatively dry cold front will move through the Northern Rockies
during the day Tuesday, that will bring gusty westerly winds to
most of the region. As it stands now, there is around a 40-50%
probability for occasional wind gusts exceeding 30 mph from the
noon hour, through sunset in the valleys of western Montana, and
a 50-60% probability for elevations of 5000 feet and higher in
western Montana and north-central Idaho. Lincoln and Flathead
counties in northwest Montana will be closer to the low pressure
center and moisture, so these locations will have a much better
chance for receiving precipitation. There is around a 20-25%
probability for rainfall amounts up to 0.20" through Wednesday
morning for these locations.

The aforementioned low will move southeast into central Montana
sometime late Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, that
will bring a cooler Canadian air mass to the Glacier Park region
and the higher terrain along the Continental Divide. Current
forecasts have snow levels lowering to around 6,000 feet Wednesday
morning, allowing for the potential for a light dusting of snow,
particularly over Logan Pass.

Clearing skies are expected as the low exists the region Wednesday
evening, that will allow for low temperatures to get into the low
to mid 30s in many valleys in western Montana and north-central
Idaho(above 3000 feet) Thursday morning. There is a 50-60%
probability the higher valleys along the divide from Seeley Lake,
Ovando, south to Butte to see lows reaching the freezing mark.
There is 40% probability lows could get down to around 36F degrees
in the valleys along highway 93 in western Montana. Thursday
morning will be our first crack at areas of frost this summer, so
make plans to protect your sensitive plants.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly cloudy conditions will remain over portions of
the Northern Rockies into this evening, mostly for locations along
and north of Interstate 90. Less cloudcover in areas around KBTM
and KSMN will allow for the development of scattered showers from
25/2300Z-26/0300Z, with a 15% probability for cloud to ground
lightning around KSMN during this same period.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$