FXUS66 KOTX 272301 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 401 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Winds will decrease through this evening, but remain generally breezy across the basin into Wednesday. Sheltered mountain valleys will be chilly tonight with patches of frost. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry with cool mornings and mild afternoon temperatures. Warm and dry conditions will return to the Pacific Northwest Friday through the Labor Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Wednesday night: Vigorous cold front early in the day has brought gusty west winds, critical fire weather conditions, and patchy blowing dust across the region. These conditions are expected to continue into the evening hours. Winds will decrease rather quickly after 7 PM this evening. This will decrease risk levels that are expected through the rest of the afternoon. The low pressure center will skirt across the Canadian border of northwest Montana tonight. Moisture wrapping around the low will stream in across northeast Washington into the Northern Panhandle with clouds and light rain possible. There is a 15-30% chance for measurable rain (at least 0.01 inches) from Northport to Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint tonight into early Wednesday. Water vapor satellite does show a lot of dry air moving in behind the cold front with dew points dropping into the 20s. Sheltered mountain valleys will see the potential for temperatures to radiate out depending on cloud cover. If skies do clear out, then temperatures have a chance to decrease into the lower 30s with frost forming in Republic, Colville, Chewelah, Deer Park, Newport, and other surrounding communities. Winds will continue to be breezy into Wednesday, but not nearly to the magnitude to what is being seen today. Expect sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to around 25 mph for Wednesday. Conditions will remain dry with dew points in the 30s and temperatures slightly warmer in the 70s. It will be a dry and breezy dry across the Upper Columbia Basin, into the Spokane Area, and Palouse. Fire weather conditions will be elevated, but not expected to see critical fire weather conditions like what is transpiring today. Clouds will be decrease on Wednesday with sunny conditions across at least eastern Washington. The Idaho Panhandle will be hanging on to light showers and these will dissipate through the afternoon as well. /SVH Thursday through Tuesday: Models continue to remain in good agreement for an upper level ridge to shift into the Pacific Northwest ahead of an upper level low off the northern California coast. Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the week, with values in the low 90s to low 100s by Sunday. The NBM is favoring places in the lower Washington Columbia Basin and the L-C valley showing a 70 to 80 percent chance for temperatures above 100 degrees on Sunday. This level of heat will result in a moderate risk for heat related illnesses, impacting individuals who are most sensitive to heat. By the late weekend into early next week, models continue to show the the breakdown of the ridge as the low ejects northeastward into the region. An influx of elevated moisture and instability will bring the potential for thunderstorms across the region some time between late Sunday and early Tuesday. Timing differences in the ensemble members is keeping NBM precipitation probabilities less than 20 percent across the Inland Northwest, but I would expect this to increase as models come into better agreement. /vmt && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Earlier cold front passage will keep winds gusty out of the west between 25-35 kts into the early evening hours. Blowing dust across the basin may result in brief visibility restrictions with MVFR conditions possible through 03Z due to the blowing dust. Wind gusts will relax overnight and then pick back up between 20-25 kts through the afternoon on Wednesday. /SVH FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through the TAF period. The greatest uncertainty will be visibility restrictions from haze or blowing dusts into the early evening hours today. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 45 75 46 80 51 87 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 42 71 44 78 49 84 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 38 67 41 78 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 48 76 50 86 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 35 74 37 80 42 85 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 41 69 41 76 46 81 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 65 46 75 53 82 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 42 77 46 83 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 49 78 55 83 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 45 78 50 85 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area. && $$