FXUS62 KMHX 061117 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 717 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure from the north will remain in place through today. Low pressure and another front is expected to impact the area this weekend. High pressure will build over the area behind the front through much of next week.. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 0700 Friday...Near term marks the transition period from the mostly dry high pressure to a more unsettled one. SFC high pressure that's been extending over the area from the N weakens through the day and the SFC low currently well to the NE of ENC continues to travel NEward by the New England coast through the period. Of note, NHC continues with low probabilities of this briefly acquiring sub-tropical characteristics. Regardless, system is departing today. Stout trough aloft digs across the Great Lakes today. Areas of deeper moisture and modest low-level forcing, associated with continued coastal troughing, may continue to support isolated to widely scattered showers. However, almost full 00Z model suite has completely cooled on the precip potential today and have followed suit by keeping PoPs below mentionable for the period. With that said, once the sfc low pulls sufficiently away this afternoon, 850-700mb flow will flip around to become more onshore, which could lead to our one or two stray shower for the day. With the increase in moisture, clouds will continue to be more prevalent, helping keep temps below normal. Overall, the risk of hazardous weather appears low through this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 0400 Friday...A front extending Sward from the departing SFC low to NE runs down the Gulfstream, across Florida, and over the Nern Gulf of Mexico. A new area of low pressure develops along this boundary just off the SECONUS coast in the early morning hours. PWATs climb back to over 2in with the moist onshore flow through the lower half of the column. Light rain is expected to overrun the FA from S to N after midnight with less than a quarter inch expected before sunrise. MinTs markedly warmer than the cool snap we had, muggy upper 60s, low 70s beaches. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday...An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the coast Saturday bringing unsettled weather across the area, followed by a cold front pushing through Saturday night. High pressure will then build into the Mid- Atlantic Sunday into Monday and continue to ridge into the area for much of next week bringing dry weather but also below normal temps and comfortable dew points. Saturday and Saturday night...A robust upper trough digging into the Midwest will become cutoff over southern Ontario Saturday with an attendant sfc front pushing into the Mid- Atlantic states. Ahead of the front, increasing upper level diffluence will aid in developing an area of low pressure along a stalled frontal boundary off the SC/GA coast which will then lift northeast off the coast during the day Saturday. A few showers will likely be developing prior to dawn as the column saturates but the bulk of the precip is expected to fall during the day Saturday. Highest precip chances will be along the coast closer to the sfc low track, which some spread remains among the models in regards how close the low tracks and ultimately the amount of rainfall received. Current blended WPC forecast bringing around a quarter to half inch but some guidance, mainly CMC and EC which track the low closest to the coast, bring as much as 1.5-3" across portions of the FA, which is obviously bringing lower confidence in expected QPF amounts. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm given approaching dynamics but instability will be limited and any severe threat appears quite limited. The clouds and precip will limit heating and high expected in the mid 70s to around 80. The low will lift away from the area late Saturday with the aforementioned cold front pushing across the area Saturday evening. The bulk of the precip will have pushed offshore late in the afternoon but cannot rule out a few additional light showers during the evening as the upper trough and sfc cold front push through the area. CAA ramps up behind the front with gusty northerly winds developing, especially along the coast, and dew points dropping into the 50s. Lows Sunday morning expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Sunday through Monday...Upper trough will persist across the Eastern seaboard through Monday with sfc high pressure building into the region bringing dry weather and below normal temps. Highs expected to be in the mid 70s on Sunday and upper 70s on Monday. Monday night through Thursday...The upper trough will lift out Monday night with upper ridging building across the Eastern CONUS mid to late week. Sfc high pressure will continue to be centered across the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England states and ridge southward into the area through Thursday keeping generally dry weather. However, some guidance is hinting at a coastal trough developing offshore and moving toward the coast beneath the high pressure on Thursday, which may bring a few showers across the region. North to northeast flow will prevail through the period keeping temps slightly below seasonal norms with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through TONIGHT/... As of 0700 Friday...Mixed bag of flight cats with low level stratus causing CIGs to bounce in and out of subVFR. Have started off with a prevailing MVFR group with a 1hr IFR tempo for all TAF sites. Expecting a relatively quick scattering of clouds allowing VFR to return for the bulk of the day. Light N to NEerly winds through the day become calm tonight. Next chance for subVFR comes after midnight tonight when rain and lower CIGs spread over the FA from S to N after 6Z. Bulk of guidance shows FL010 < CIGs < FL030 with the typical pessimists showing IFR or below which is certainly a possibility underneath heavier rain. However, this transition is likely to happen at or after the end of the period so have shown the downward trend at the end of this TAF. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Friday...An area of low pressure will be tracking along the coast on Saturday bring area of rain across the region with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely across most rtes. Coastal sections will have the best chance of seeing prolonged sub-VFR. A cold front will then push across rtes Saturday night with high pressure building across the region into next week with pred VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through TONIGHT/.. As of 0415 Friday...The combination of low pressure offshore, a cold front to the south, and high pressure building in from the north, will keep a modest pressure gradient in place across coastal NC through early today. This will continue to support elevated winds and seas. Nerly winds 15-25kt early becoming more NEerly 10-20kt and eventually laying down to AoB 10kt after sunset. Seas 6-8ft subside to 3-5 ft (save for central waters) by this evening which is when SCAs begin stepping down. Through Friday, there will be a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially for the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet south through Cape Lookout. Rain and tstorm chances increase from S to N after midnight tonight as low pressure develops off the SECONUS coast. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Thursday...Low pressure will track along/off the coast Saturday with a cold front pushing across the waters Saturday night. Generally expected N to NE winds around 15 kt or less during the day Saturday although the northern waters may trend S to SE depending on how closely the low tracks to the coast. Once the front pushes through Saturday evening, winds will become northerly around 15-25 kt through Sunday morning. N to NE winds around 10-15 kt will then prevail through Tuesday with high pressure remaining centered north of the area. Seas expected to be around 4-5 ft across the northern and 2-4 ft southern waters during the day Saturday, although some 6-7 ft seas may linger across the outer central waters. Seas will build to 6-9 ft across the northern/central waters and 3-6 southern waters Saturday night behind the front, peaking Sunday morning. Seas gradually subside Sunday afternoon with waters below SCA criteria Sunday evening though 6-7 ft seas may linger across the outer central waters through Sunday night/Monday morning. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/CEB MARINE...SK/CEB