FXUS62 KMHX 081111 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 711 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area from the north today lasting through much of next week. Unsettled weather may return late in the week as a tropical system lifts into the Deep South and a weaker low pressure area potentially develops off the Southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 0700 Sunday...SFC High pressure will become established across the area today bringing below normal temps, crisp Tds in the 50s, and a mostly dry forecast. Aloft, shortwave traveling about the low just NE of the Great Lakes digs Sward keeping upper level troughing in place through the period. The new cool and dry airmass will favor clearing skies but the moisture rich flow aloft will keep mid and upper level clouds in place over the coast. There may be enough moisture convergence and just enough of an upglide over the incoming high pressure to lead to a low, but nonzero chance for areas along the Sern coast to see some sprinkles during peak heating this afternoon. Brisk Nerly breeze early slowly laxes while veering through the day. Cooler highs in the low to mid 70s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 0700 Sunday...High pressure continues to build over the area with troughing aloft. Expecting upper level clouds to clear slightly from N to S through the overnight. Shower activity persists offshore with a low end chance of a shower skirting the immediate Crystal Coast. Cool airmass and winds becoming light and variable, if not completely calm, after sunset leading to strong radiational cooling for places not underneath upper level cloud cover resulting in remarkably cool overnight temps for this time of year; MinTs in the low 50s inland, low to mid 60s coast. The strong cooling and calming winds leave the potential for fog development in the early morning hours on the table. For now, the best chances are far NWern zones as they will have the clearest skies, calmest winds, and coolest temps. But, with the air mass so dry not seeing potential for widespread, highly impactful fog to develop and will most likely only see shallow, patchy ditch fog in sheltered spots. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday...High pressure will build into the Mid- Atlantic through Monday and continue to ridge into the area for much of next week bringing dry weather but also below normal temps and comfortable dew points. Unsettled weather may return late in the week as a tropical system lifts into the Deep South and a weaker low pressure area potentially develops off the Southeast coast. Monday night through Wednesday...The upper trough over the Eastern seaboard Monday will lift out Monday night with upper ridging building across the Eastern CONUS mid to late week. Sfc high pressure will continue to be centered across the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England states and ridge southward into the area keeping dry weather. North to northeast flow will prevail keeping temps slightly below seasonal norms with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s. Thursday through Saturday...Guidance continues to develop a rex block late in the week with ridging across the Great Lakes and an upper low associated with a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico lifting into the Deep South and stalling somewhere over the Southeast through the weekend. Meanwhile sfc high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will gradually weaken while continuing to ridge into the area. This will allow a stalled frontal boundary across the northern Gulf of Mexico and central FL to lift northward and could see an area of low pressure develop off the Southeast coast Friday into the weekend, although guidance is trending weaker with this low in favor of the tropical low lifting into the South. Depending on how far north the boundary lifts and how close the low develops to the coast will dictate the coverage or precip that may impact the region. Continues to follow NBM which brings slight chance to chance PoPs across the region, highest across the coastal waters. East to northeast winds continues to allow for seasonably cool temps with highs in the lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06Z Monday/... As of 0700 Sunday...VFR flight cats expected through the period. Clouds coverage limited to mid and upper levels over the coast. Stiff Nerly breeze early slowly veers while relaxing through the day. Most, if not all, precip activity expected to remain offshore. However, OAJ may see some sprinkles or drizzle this afternoon but probs too low and impacts will be negligible so am omitting from TAFs. Winds become light and variable after sunset with some clearing from N to S. Clearing skies, calming winds, and strong cooling open the door for fog developing in the early morning hours. But, the airmass is too dry to support widespread, highly impactful fog development. Have introduced a 6sm BR for PGV as they've got the best chance with winds calming and skies clearing their first. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 230 AM Sunday...High pressure will build across the region through the long term bringing predominant VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/.. As of 0300 Sunday...SCAs continue for coastal waters. Cold front has pushed offshore with high pressure building in behind it. Nerly flow of 15-25 kt early will gradually diminish while veering to become more NEerly at 10-15 kt this evening. Seas of 5-9ft slowly subside with weakening winds to reach 3-5ft outside of the central waters overnight. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 230 AM Sunday...High pressure building into the Mid- Atlantic will persist through much of next week bringing predominantly NE to E winds around 15 kt or less through the long term. Seas around 3-5 ft Monday subsides to 2-4 ft Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas begin to build again late Wednesday and could see 3-5 ft Wednesday night into Thursday with some guidance suggesting 6 or even 7 ft across the outer waters south of Hatteras, which will mainly depend on the pressure gradients between high pressure ridging into the area and low pressure potentially developing off the Southeast coast. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/SGK/CEB MARINE...SK/CEB