FXUS62 KILM 191942 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front and low pressure aloft will result in a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorm today. Slightly cooler and drier weather will accompany persistent north- northeasterly winds from Friday through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Rain chances could return by mid next week as moisture increases. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered showers continue across the area this aftn, due to a combo of sfc outflow boundaries and cyclonic flow aloft in conjunction with decent deep-layer moisture. Expect the activity to wave following the loss in daytime heating, with the main upr-level trough axis also pulling off the coast. With today's rainfall, light winds, and small dewpoint depressions tonight, expect patchy to areas of fog mainly inland, though the overall coverage remains unclear due to the continued presence of mid-level clouds and a bit of boundary-layer wind. Low temps in the mid 60s. Dry then for Friday with sfc high pressure building in from the NW and the upr- level trough offshore. Similar temps Friday as today...highs in the low/mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Quiet period expected with mostly dry conditions under ridging high pressure. Some daytime instability could lead to shallow pop-up showers Friday due to lingering low-level moisture, but these will yield little to no rainfall as dry air remains dominant aloft. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The period stays primarily dry until mid next week when moisture from a low in the Midwest makes it around the mountains amidst ridging high pressure. Low rain chances will then linger through the end of the period as the high weakens. Temperatures near seasonable. Models remain inconsistent on the potential for a tropical system at the end of the period, but this will be monitored as the forecast period progresses. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR to start off the 18Z TAF period. Scattered showers are starting to form across the areas, and could lead to occasional MVFR/IFR for the remainder of the day. Low cigs and/or vsbys then likely, at least inland, late tonight into Friday morning especially over areas that received rainfall today. Boundary layer winds are more favorable for low stratus, but with with today's rain and lighter wind in spots, fog cannot be ruled out. Conditions improve to VFR everyday into the day Friday with dry weather. Extended Outlook...Mainly dry with VFR conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at times. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions continue as sfc high pres builds in from the NW. Winds generally out of the NE, up to 10-15 kt during the day Friday. Seas 2-4 ft Friday, a combo of easterly 9-10 second swell and the NE 3-4 second wind wave. Friday Night through Tuesday...Expect N to NE flow through the period generally around 10 kts. Wind speeds will increase to near 15 kts due to NE surges with ridging high pressure Fri night and Mon. Waveheights generally 2-4 ft with 4 footers more designated to the SE NC coastal waters ~20 nm out. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides and NE flow continue the coastal flood threat through the weekend. WLON7 made it to moderate flooding today, and with about a 50% chance of it happening again midday Friday, went ahead and issued a Coastal Flood Watch for both sides of the lower Cape Fear River. Otherwise, mainly expecting only minor flooding for the other high tide cycles, as well as for the beaches where Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ107-109. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for NCZ107-109. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...