ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure has
formed in association with the remnants of Gordon.  However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward.
After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an  area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven