FXUS66 KHNX 022016
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
116 PM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry conditions and well above average temperatures will prevail
through the week. There is a 70 to 90 percent chance of triple digit
heat across much of the San Joaquin Valley on Thursday and a 30
to 70 percent chance of triple digit heat across much of the
San Joaquin Valley on Friday.

2. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley,
West Side Hills, and Sierra Foothills through 11 PM PDT Thursday.

3. Low afternoon humidity will occur across many locations along
with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in the mountains and
desert.

4. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature
outlooks show a 50 to 70 percent chance for above average
temperatures across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large upper ridge centered off the Norcal coast
remains the dominant weather feature across our area and is
maintaining much above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
The prevailing airmass over our area is unusually warm for early
October and most locations area running 2-4 DEG F above
yesterday at this time and several new record high temepratures
for the day were set by afternoon. By this afternoon, several
all time October daytime maximum temperature records will likely
be set. With little change in the pattern anticipated on
Thursday, a repeat is likely with more daily record maximum high
temperatures falling. NBM probabilistic guidance is indicating
a 70 to 90 PoE of 100 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley on
Thursday.

On Friday, an upper trough is progged to push across the PAC NW
which should lower heights and thicknesses enough over central
CA to reduce heat impacts across the lower elevations of our
area. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the
weekend; however, and NBM probabilistic guidance is indicating
a 30 to 70 PoE of 100 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley on
Friday. A slight downward trend in temperatures will then take
place over the weekend with the PoE of 100 DEG F in most of the
San Joaquin Valley lowering to 10 to 30 percent.

A shortwave trough is then progged to push into the PAC NW on
Sunday and results in a more pronounced onshore flow pattern
becoming established over central CA next week. By early next
week, the ensemble means are showing an upper trough moving into
central CA. While this feature is moisture starved and will not
provide our area with any precipitation, it will impact our
area with temperatures towering to slightly above seasonal
normal levels next Tuesday and Wednesday in response to lowering
heights and thicknesses.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA
Interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300>322.
&&

$$

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idss...DCH

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