FXUS01 KWBC 020740
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

....There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Gulf Coast on Thursday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Central High Plains/Central Rockies on Wednesday...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
parts of Southern California and the Southwest...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Central
Appalachians to the Central Gulf Coast moves eastward to the
Northeast and dissipates. On Wednesday, the front will produce
light rain over parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Central
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. The light rain will end overnight
Wednesday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of Florida through Friday.

On Thursday, tropical moisture will start to build over the
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast and Florida. Upper-level energy over
the Western Gulf Coast and Northern Gulf of Mexico will move into
parts of the Southeast and Central Gulf Coast, producing moderate
to heavy rain over parts of the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Central Gulf Coast from Thursday into Friday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of
flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with
heavy rain. Light rain and showers will also develop over parts of
the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern Plains to parts of
the Pacific Northwest will move eastward to the Great Lakes and
southward to the Central Plains by Thursday evening. As the
boundary continues to move eastward, light rain will develop over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and expand into the Upper
Great Lakes by Friday.

Furthermore, down-slope flow over parts of the Northern/Central
Rockies will create warm air over parts of the Central Rockies,
combined with strong gust wind and dry fuels, which have prompted
a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central Rockies
on Wednesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will
create high temperatures over Southern California and the
Southwest, ranging from the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from
the heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of Southern California and
the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest
this week. Moderate to major heat impacts are possible in areas
near San Francisco, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. Extreme Heat Risk
impacts are forecast in Phoenix. Remember, Heat is the Deadliest
Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People spending more time outdoors
or in a building without cooling are at an increased risk of
heat-related illness. Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check
local media and government websites for information on cooling
centers.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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