FXUS65 KTFX 041126 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 526 AM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 ...Updated Aviation Section... .SYNOPSIS... It will be a warm and windy afternoon, but expect a strong Pacific cold front to move eastward across MT this evening. Wind gusts around 60 mph will be possible at times today and tonight. It will be cooler on Saturday, with some rain or snow along the Rocky Mountain Front during the morning hours. For much of next week, expect above normal temperatures along with dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Today through tonight...Expect quite a change in weather conditions over the CWA over the next 24 to 36 hours. A strong Pacific cold front is approaching from the west this morning. Expect warm temperatures and strong winds to develop ahead of the front this afternoon. Overall, most forecast zones have a few locations that have an 80 percent chance of reaching high wind criteria. Thus the high wind warning remains in effect for the entire CWA. Some adjustments to the start time might be needed over North Central MT, should the strong winds develop a bit earlier. Otherwise, the main cold front will move from west to east across the CWA this evening. Winds will remain strong behind the cold front for several hours, with the winds diminishing on Saturday morning. Any precipitation will mainly fall over the Rocky Mountain Front, but an isolated passing shower will be possible further east. Precipitation amounts around 0.25 inches will be possible in the Rockies, with snow levels falling to around 5000 feet by Saturday morning. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible at Logan's Pass overnight tonight. Saturday into Saturday night...Expect much cooler temperatures on Saturday, with any remaining precipitation mostly coming to an end during the morning hours. Sunday through Friday...Expect an upper level ridge of high pressure to reside over MT for much of next week. The ridge will start to flatten a bit by next Friday, as an upper level trof starts to approach MT. However, little to no precipitation is expected across the entire CWA from Sunday through Friday. Afternoon temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees above normal each day during this period. Brusda && .AVIATION... 04/12Z TAF Period During this TAF period VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals. The primary aviation concern during this TAF period is strong winds and wind gusts at all terminals. Wind will increase at around 04/18Z at all terminals except for the KHVR terminal and be the strongest between 04/20Z and 05/06Z. At the KHVR terminal winds will increase at around 05/01Z. During this TAF period wind gusts at the KHLN, KGTF, and KWYS terminals will approach or exceed 48kts. During this TAF period wind gusts at the KEKS and KCTB terminals will approach or exceed 54 kts. There will be instances of low-level wind shear at all terminals from 05/00Z through the end of this TAF period. There is a 20 - 30% chance for very light rain showers at all terminals excluding the KEKS and KWYS terminals from 05/00z to 05/12Z. -IG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .FIRE WEATHER... The Red Flag Warning continues for fire zone 118 from this afternoon into early Saturday morning. Warm temperatures, low humidity and strong winds are expected this afternoon, with a wind shift this evening. Further north, we will see similar conditions, expect with just not as low humidity. A cold front will move from west to east across the districts this evening. Expect a wind shift from the southwest to the west behind this front. Most of the precipitation will be confined to the Rocky Mountain Front, with no precipitation expected from Sunday through Thursday across the districts. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 84 44 65 38 / 10 20 0 0 CTB 78 41 59 35 / 0 30 0 0 HLN 83 44 65 38 / 0 40 0 0 BZN 83 38 66 34 / 0 20 0 0 WYS 72 30 61 25 / 0 10 0 0 DLN 80 36 65 34 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 81 45 65 36 / 0 40 0 0 LWT 81 40 61 36 / 0 30 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM MDT Saturday for Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest. High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls