FXUS66 KHNX 051949
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1249 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry conditions and well above average temperatures will
prevail through the middle of next week. There is a 40 to 85
percent chance of triple digit heat across much of the San
Joaquin Valley on Sunday.

2. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley,
West Side Hills, and Sierra Foothills through 11 PM PDT Sunday.

3. Low afternoon humidity will occur across many locations along
with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in the mountains and
desert.

4. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature
outlooks show a 50 to 70 percent chance for above normal
temperatures across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The ridge of high pressure that brought us the record-breaking
triple digits continues to hang around. Latest model ensembles
are in a very strong agreement that the ridge moves east through
the weekend into early next week. The setup will help bring
temperatures down but will remain above average for the next
several days.

There is a 40 to 85 percent probability of triple digits for
Sunday in the San Joaquin Valley. However, the probabilities of
triple digits drop to 25 percent or less in most spots on
Monday. Over the next couple days, the probabilities of high
temperatures of at least 90 degrees decrease slowly down to a 60
to 85 percent probability on Thursday, October 10.

Model ensembles are in an agreement that a trough slides into
the Pacific Northwest bringing in cooler temperatures. However,
the probabilities are at 45 to 75 percent for high temperatures
of at least 85 degrees beginning Friday which is around 5
degrees above average. This bodes well with the latest CPC 6-10
and 8-14 day outlooks which have a 50 to 70 percent chance of
above average temperatures. However, the CPC outlooks have near
normal precipitation in both 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which
is not much as the daily climatology has 0 to 0.01 inches of
precipitation.



&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA
Interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ300>322.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford