FXUS66 KLOX 082053
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
153 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...08/136 PM.

Above normal temperatures will continue across valley and inland
areas through Friday with normal to slightly below normal
temperatures at the coasts. Night through morning low clouds will
continue along the coast, with dense fog and low visibilities at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...08/148 PM.

A very weak upper level trough continues along the California
coast and this was responsible for the increase in onshore flow
today and the widespread cooling trend that ended the streak of
100+ temperatures for inland areas. The weak trough will be
replaced with weak ridging later Wednesday through the end of the
week, and this along with a light offshore trend will likely
bring slight warming to inland areas but only a degree or two. In
any case, temperatures will remain 4-8 degrees above normal inland
and 1-3 degrees above normal along the coast. Marine layer
stratus is expected to remain shallow, mostly under 1000 feet,
resulting in areas of dense fog near the coast for the night and
morning hours.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/152 PM.

Not much to talk about in the extended forecast either. Hgts will
slowly fall from 587 dam to 585 dam as the weak ridge is replaced
by a weak trof.

There will be weak to moderate onshore flow to the east. In the
N/S direction there will be weak offshore flow in the mornings and
weak onshore flow in the afternoon. The forecast offshore flow
from the north is now weaker than it was earlier and this would
limit the amount and strength of any north winds.

Skies will be mostly clear through the period save for the night
through morning low clouds along the coast.

The falling hgts and small increase in onshore flow will bring
several days of cooling (With Saturday having the most noticeable
cool down) and by Sunday most areas will see below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1819Z.

At around 14Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 500 ft. The top
of the inversion was near 3000 ft with a temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate to High confidence for KVNY and KBUR. There is a 10%
chance of 3SM-5SM vsby from after 11Z tonight.

Low confidence in coastal TAFs. Clearing times of cigs at KOXR,
KCMA, KSMO, KSBA, and KLAX may be off 90 minutes this morning.
Arrival times of cigs tonight may vary by +/- 2 hours, flight cats
may be off by one during cigs/vsby restrictions.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF, largely due to timing of flight cat
changes. Clearing may be off 90 minutes this morning and there is
a 20% chance that cigs will arrive as early as 22Z this
afternoon. Good confidence that any cigs will be in the LIFR to
VLIFR category at times. No significant east wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate to High confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance
of 3SM-5SM vsby from after 11Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...08/853 AM.

For the Outer Waters (off the Central Coast south to San Nicolas
Island), moderate confidence in the forecast. Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds will likely (60-70% chance) affect the
northern zone (PZZ670) beginning this morning, and the central
zone (PZZ673) (50-60% chance) this afternoon. Winds should drop
below SCA levels late tonight, except possibly early Wed in the
northern zone. In the southern zone (PZZ676), there is a 20-30%
chance of SCA level winds this afternoon into tonight. SCA level
winds are likely (60-70% chance) in the northern two zones
(PZZ670/673) Wed afternoon thru Thu night, and again Sat afternoon
into Sat night. Thru Thu night, winds will be strongest in the
western portion of the outer waters. In the southern zone
(PZZ676), there is a 30% chance of SCA winds Wed afternoon thru
Thu night, then SCA level winds are likely (60-70% chance) Sat
afternoon into Sat night.

For the inner waters, there is a (20-30%) chance of SCA winds
north of Point Sal in the afternoon and evening today thru
Thu, and again Sat. Otherwise, SCA winds are not expected.

A shallow marine layer will continue to generate areas of dense
fog across portions of the coastal waters through at least Wed
morning. Visibilities of one nautical mile or less are expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld/Black
MARINE...DB/Black
SYNOPSIS...JMB/RM

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox