FXUS66 KMTR 080620
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1120 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Warm again today, but temperatures are on the decline this week.
Excessive Heat Warnings have been downgraded to Heat Advisories
inland, and the Heat Advisory along the coast is no longer in
effect.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Today's max temperatures did break some daily records for areas in
the North, East, and South Bay but the good news is that the heat is
finally transitioning to cooler temperatures. Observations are
already trending 5-10 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. The ongoing
forecast remains on track with the Heat Advisory expiring
tonight. Therefore, no updates were made to the forecast at this
moment.

SO

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

The heat continues across the region today with the warmest interior
areas reaching up to 105 degrees while it will be slightly cooler
near the coast. As of this writing, Ocean Beach is in the upper 60's
while downtown San Francisco is 90 degrees. This is why we have a
Heat Advisory in effect for interior and higher elevations through
11 PM this evening.

Cooling will spread inland overnight as the marine layer deepens and
500 mb height lower in response to troughing off of the West Coast.
Look for overnight lows to dip into the low-to-mid 60's across the
warmer inland spots and upper 50's to low 60's elsewhere. However,
the higher elevations will remain warm in the mid 60's to mid 70's.
It will also continue to be critically dry in the higher elevations
once again overnight.

Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler, but still above average for most
interior locations. Maximum forecast temperatures are expected to be
in the mid 90's in the interior, 80's just inland away from the
immediate coast/bays, mid-to-upper 70's around the Bayshore Line,
and upper 60's to lower 80's (Santa Cruz area) near the coast. Thus,
HeatRisk will be Low across much of the region with pockets of
Moderate in the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

The pattern is a little more interesting going through the rest of
this week. A deep upper low in the Gulf of Alaska is progged to
send several more vigorous shortwave troughs into the PNW with a
fairly robust moisture tap in tow. The parent upper low is progged
to dig southward along the West Coast in what looks like a fairly
typical wet-season weak cold front set up. There also seems to be
more alignment among ensemble guidance regarding the chance of
wetting rain and its timing. Once again, the chance is still low
given how far out the period is from current, and given that it's
an early season event. However, with more members hopping on board
with the large-scale pattern shift, confidence is increasing that
we should message at least some chance of light rain Saturday for
the Bay Area and points northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

VFR will continue through the forecast period, however as the
marine layer rebounds there is a slight chance of IFR ceilings to
return late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Breezy onshore flow will develop Tuesday
afternoon and persist into the evening hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Same as SFO, VFR with breezy afternoon and
early evening surface winds.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to prevail through the
forecast period but a slight chance of occasional IFR marine layer ceilings
in the predawn hours through the early half of Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 438 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

An approaching weak cold front from the north will result in
increasing winds over the coastal waters. Winds will initially
increase over the northern waters Monday evening and then spread
southward on Tuesday. The stronger winds will result in steeper
wind waves and a fresh swell. A passing storm system at the end of
the week will bring a chance for rain to the region.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ510-514-515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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