FXUS63 KBIS 130305 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1005 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph may linger through the night. - Freezing temperatures tonight into Sunday morning across north central and western north Dakota. Widespread freezing temperatures again Monday morning. - Generally warming temperatures and dry conditions will be found through at least mid next week. Some breezy winds may be found at times. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 There are a few locations where winds are still gusting around 25 mph, otherwise winds continue to calm down. Relative humidities are forecast to be around 100 percent across the west and central. However, with the winds not forecast to be calm, there should be very limited fog. Added fog in the far western valleys where the winds will be the calmest in the early morning. All the wildfires seem to be contained now. UPDATE Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Winds are decreasing across the area as the cold front continues to move southeast. However winds are still around 25 mph from the northwest. The northwest part of the state will calm first. Fires have broke out in northwest Burleigh County, with smoke over the city of Bismarck. We will maintain the near critical fire weather wording through sunset. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Cold front is expected to finish moving across the CWA this evening, while a clipper type wave skirts northern an eastern North Dakota. Behind this cold front breezy northwest winds have been observed, with the higher gusts around 35 mph and perhaps up to 40 mph. Expect this trend to continue at least into the evening hours. The dry air behind this front has dropped RH values into the 20s. This could lead to a period of near critical fire weather conditions into this evening as well, mainly south and west of the Missouri River and across Williams County. The mentioned clipper system could also bring a brief period of increased clouds this evening into tonight. An isolated rain shower is possible in the northeast, although PoPs at this time are generally below 25 percent. Tonight, a surface high will enter into western ND, while a pressure gradient remains in eastern portions. These eastern portions could see some elevated winds through the night, while western portions sees winds diminish and clouds clear. This colder air mass and diminishing winds could bring widespread lows at or below freezing. Thus have issued a Freeze Warning for much of north central and western ND tonight into Sunday morning. Current temperature forecast is a blend of NBM/NBM50th. These same areas could also see some patchy fog develop given high humidity recoveries. Forecast soundings showing fairly dry air still in place, thus left it out of the forecast for now. Surface high takes over for Sunday, with northwest flow aloft. Colder temperatures and dry conditions can be expected. Some lingering breezy winds are also possible, mainly in the eastern portions of ND. With the surface high in place again Sunday night into Monday, widespread freezing temperatures are expected. Blended in NBM50th for this night as well. The result could potentially be another freeze highlight during this time period and will have to be monitored going forward. Monday through mid week sees a large cutoff low to are east trying to get nudged eastward from a build ridge to our west. Deterministic models waffle a bit on the timing of this, although clusters are showing the ridge should win out and build over the region. The overall result is warmer temperatures each day and continued dry conditions. Surface high to our west could bring some breezy southerly winds Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures could even warm back into the 70s Wednesday. Low afternoon RH values may also be found as a result from this pattern. If winds can line up with the lowest RH values, then perhaps some near critical fire weather conditions return next week. Thursday may still be warm and breezy. Clusters indicate a pattern shift could be coming for the late week period. This may bring cooler temperatures and perhaps chances for precipitation. There remains uncertainty on the track of the trough that could bring about this change. Precipitation chances as a result are low at this point, although there is increasing confidence more normal like temperatures could return. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1003 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 VFR skies and conditions through the period. Northwest winds gusting around 20 kts calming to 10 to 15 kts overnight. There are random spots of low level clouds across the area right now, mainly east of the Missouri River. Otherwise high clouds overnight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>021-031>034-040>044. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Smith