FXUS63 KBIS 132040
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
340 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread below freezing temperatures expected tonight into
  Monday morning. Below freezing temperatures could again be
  found Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- Near to above normal temperatures with mainly dry conditions
  expected through mid week. Breezy winds may be found at times.
  Breezy winds combined with dry conditions may bring some
  increased fire weather concerns.

- Cooler more normal like temperatures, along with some chances
  for precipitation (20 to 40%) may return later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Surface high pressure will remain across the state tonight.
Light winds and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies will be
found as a result. This is expected to bring another colder
night across the CWA. Thus a Freeze Warning remains for the
entire CWA overnight tonight through late Monday morning. With
higher RH values tonight and some light winds, patchy fog is
possible. Confidence was not high enough to include in the
forecast given the dry conditions in place. High moves eastward
on Monday leaving a tightening gradient across the state. This
will gradually bring a steady east to southeast wind. There is a
small chance (up to 10%) a boundary from and upper level low to
our east sets up a few light showers in the east. Generally
just increased clouds are expected from this boundary, and left
the forecast dry as of now. Temperatures will start to warm in
the west, although could remain cool in the east. Afternoon RH
values could fall into the 20s for these warmer areas, although
light winds should limit any fire weather concerns. Another
surface high enters eastern ND Monday night, further increasing
the pressure gradient across the west. Breezy southerly winds
could be found through the night in the west as a result. This
high from the north could also provide for another night of sub
freezing temperatures across much of the CWA.

Tuesday and Wednesday then see an upper level ridge aloft,
although a high to our east and a developing low to our west
will keep a decent gradient across ND. This will allow for
breezy southerly winds each day. This could lead to increased
fire weather concerns each day. Tuesday afternoon RH values are
forecast in the mid 20s to mid 30s with temperatures near
normal. Wednesday could be of more concern for fire weather as
temperatures forecast to return back into the 70s, bringing
lower afternoon RH values in the teens and 20s. Currently the
stronger winds are eastward of the lowest RH for Wednesday,
although this will have to be monitored closely. The mentioned
surface low is then forecast to move through with a cold front
sometime Thursday. Warm temperatures could linger until the
front moves through. This lingers breezy winds from the south,
switching to the west. RH values may slightly improve Thursday,
and generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s. NBM continues to place
pops in with the passage of this front, although they remain on
the lower side in the 20 to 40% range.

A switch to a trough pattern could then be found later week
through the weekend. Clusters showing high confidence on a
trough, although they are also hinting this trough could be more
of a split wave feature. If that ends up being the case the
chances for precipitation will be low through the weekend, which
is currently what the NBM has in the forecast. There is higher
confidence though for cooler more normal like temperatures for
the upcoming weekend which should also improve afternoon RH
values. Less breezy winds also look to be in store for the
weekend, as currently there is not a signal on the ECMWF EFI
for strong winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Northerly winds will become light and variable this evening
through tonight. These winds will then become southerly on
Monday, yet remain light. FEW to SCT mid to high level clouds
may also be found at times throughout the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ Monday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin