FXUS63 KBIS 132312 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 612 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread below freezing temperatures expected tonight into Monday morning. Below freezing temperatures could again be found Monday night into Tuesday morning. - Near to above normal temperatures with mainly dry conditions expected through mid week. Breezy winds may be found at times. Breezy winds combined with dry conditions may bring some increased fire weather concerns. - Cooler more normal like temperatures, along with some chances for precipitation (20 to 40%) may return later this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Surface high pressure over central ND will move east into eastern ND by Monday morning. Generally light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies expected tonight across western and central ND. A Freeze Warning remains in effect with sub-freezing temperatures forecast across western and central North Dakota. Only updates were a few tweaks to sky cover. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Surface high pressure will remain across the state tonight. Light winds and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies will be found as a result. This is expected to bring another colder night across the CWA. Thus a Freeze Warning remains for the entire CWA overnight tonight through late Monday morning. With higher RH values tonight and some light winds, patchy fog is possible. Confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast given the dry conditions in place. High moves eastward on Monday leaving a tightening gradient across the state. This will gradually bring a steady east to southeast wind. There is a small chance (up to 10%) a boundary from and upper level low to our east sets up a few light showers in the east. Generally just increased clouds are expected from this boundary, and left the forecast dry as of now. Temperatures will start to warm in the west, although could remain cool in the east. Afternoon RH values could fall into the 20s for these warmer areas, although light winds should limit any fire weather concerns. Another surface high enters eastern ND Monday night, further increasing the pressure gradient across the west. Breezy southerly winds could be found through the night in the west as a result. This high from the north could also provide for another night of sub freezing temperatures across much of the CWA. Tuesday and Wednesday then see an upper level ridge aloft, although a high to our east and a developing low to our west will keep a decent gradient across ND. This will allow for breezy southerly winds each day. This could lead to increased fire weather concerns each day. Tuesday afternoon RH values are forecast in the mid 20s to mid 30s with temperatures near normal. Wednesday could be of more concern for fire weather as temperatures forecast to return back into the 70s, bringing lower afternoon RH values in the teens and 20s. Currently the stronger winds are eastward of the lowest RH for Wednesday, although this will have to be monitored closely. The mentioned surface low is then forecast to move through with a cold front sometime Thursday. Warm temperatures could linger until the front moves through. This lingers breezy winds from the south, switching to the west. RH values may slightly improve Thursday, and generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s. NBM continues to place pops in with the passage of this front, although they remain on the lower side in the 20 to 40% range. A switch to a trough pattern could then be found later week through the weekend. Clusters showing high confidence on a trough, although they are also hinting this trough could be more of a split wave feature. If that ends up being the case the chances for precipitation will be low through the weekend, which is currently what the NBM has in the forecast. There is higher confidence though for cooler more normal like temperatures for the upcoming weekend which should also improve afternoon RH values. Less breezy winds also look to be in store for the weekend, as currently there is not a signal on the ECMWF EFI for strong winds. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Only high level clouds expected over western ND TAF sites of KXWA and KDIK through the 00Z TAF period. High level clouds tonight into Monday morning across central ND sites of KMOT, KBIS and KJMS. Lower level clouds dropping south from Manitoba and into eastern North Dakota on Monday could push far enough west to produce a scattered layer of CU/SC clouds at KMOT and KBIS and possibly a ceiling at KJMS. At this time it looks like if a broken ceiling occurs, it would be VFR. Monday afternoon we introduced a scattered MVFR layer at KJMS with a low VFR ceiling around 4kft. Light winds at all taf sites tonight will become east to southeast Monday late morning and afternoon at 6 to 12 kts, with the higher winds over western ND including KDIK and KXWA. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Monday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048- 050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...TWH