FXUS65 KGGW 151028
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
428 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures
  Wednesday 15-25 degrees above average expected.

- Next cold front moves in Wednesday night. Precipitation
  possible Thursday into Thursday night, with areas south of
  highway 200 getting the highest amounts.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridge will move across the region, with a trough approaching
the west coast. As the trough dives south at the end of the week,
a closed low develops over the Great Basin. This will put
northeast Montana between the fast zonal flow over Canada and the
cut off low to the south.

As the trough approaches and the ridge moves east on Wednesday, a
lee trough develops over central Montana. Compressional heating
ahead of this front will bring temperatures to well above normal.
The front will move east overnight, with much cooler temperatures
for Thursday. Precipitation chances are minimal, and will mainly
be confined to the southern zones with low qpf. West winds will
also be increasing behind the frontal passage, with speeds close
to Lake Wind Criteria on Thursday.

A second push of precipitation is possible, again well to the
south, on Thursday night and Friday as the northern flow separates
from the closed low. With general downslope flow on the edge of
the zonal flow, temperatures will be rising into the weekend.
Another cold front is expected early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Fire weather conditions increase with the warming on Wednesday.
Relative humidity will drop but with winds not increasing until
the frontal passage overnight, headlines are not expected.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. High pressure in the region will keep things dry over the
next few days. Only a few passing mid to high level clouds
expected.

A cold front is expected on Wednesday night with a wind shift and
increasing winds. Clouds will also increase and lower with a few
light showers possible, mainly south of the Missouri River.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow