FXUS66 KHNX 221828 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1128 AM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Sierra Nevada and West Side Hills this week due to low humidity and poor overnight recoveries. Conditions will gradually improve into the weekend. 2. Temperatures will remain above normal for the remainder of this week. 3. A system early next week has the potential to cause below normal temperatures with a minor chance (10 to 25 percent) for measurable rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley and a moderate chance (40 to 50 percent) for a dusting of snow for the Sierra Nevada. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure ridging will keep dry conditions with above average temperatures once again today. Highs today in the Central Valley have about a 15 to 35 percent chance of reaching at least 85 degrees, while the chances for highs at least 80 degrees are around 75 to near 100 percent. Certainty for these readings is markedly higher for the Kern County desert portions. Nights will remain seasonably cool, with the coldest locations in the valley and desert dipping into the mid to upper 40's. This weather pattern will last until at least Saturday, while similar probabilities for highs in the 80's at the warmest spots continue. However, we could see a brief, minor decrease in temperatures on Thursday, due to a trough passing to our north, or over the Pacific Northwest. Probabilities for maximum temperatures in the 80's are lowest for this particular day, though mainly at 60-80 percent. Beginning Sunday, expect a cooling trend as the ridge of high pressure gradually weakens and shifts further inland, though afternoon highs remain a bit above normal. More noticeable cooling occurs on Monday, as a low pressure system and associated trough arrives. This system will also bring a slight chance for light precipitation. Precipitation amounts are at currently at around 15 to 30 percent for 0.01 inch of liquid in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills. As for snow, there is a probability of 40 to 50 percent for at least 0.10 inch of snow in much the Sierra Nevada above 7,000 feet. Otherwise, cooler temperatures return, with the warmest locations reaching into the lower 70's on Monday (with probabilities near 100 percent with highs at or below 75 degrees across the region). Even cooler readings are in store for next Tuesday as highs remain below 70 degrees (65 to 90 percent chance across our valley and desert locations). && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO/DCH weather.gov/hanford