FXUS63 KEAX 271133 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 633 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather concerns anticipated for Monday and Tuesday - A chance for advisory level winds mainly for western Missouri/eastern Kansas Monday and Tuesday - Chances for showers and storms Wednesday night into Thursday overnight; Some of which may be strong to severe && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 A surface high to our northeast over the Ohio Valley Region has kept our winds fairly weak and out of the east. As the high continues to push east, a low moving through the Prairie Provinces of Canada will shift our winds to the south as we enter the warm sector. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday with highs in the upper 60s for northern MO and mid 70s for more southern areas. With an increase in moisture transport from the south, there may be a few clouds this afternoon. For the NDFD grids, I decreased dewpoints a few degrees to account for the diurnal mixing of dry air aloft for Sunday afternoon. Monday we begin to really feel the effects of entering the warm sector of the approaching low. Not only are temperatures expected to reach the low 80s (which is 20 degrees above normal temperatures), but near record high temperatures are likely with the influx of anomalously warm air from the desert southwest. A strengthened pressure gradient could yield up to 40 mph winds primarily for western portions of the CWA. Ensemble guidance suggests a mean percentile of wind gusts of 35 mph for western portions of the region including the KC Metro. This combined with relative humidities hovering around 35% suggest elevated fire concerns for Monday afternoon. Tuesday, the effects of the warm sector are amplified as another low develops to our west over Nebraska. This will result in another day of highs in the low 80s, winds around 40 mph, and relative humidity forecasts in the low to mid 40s. Guidance suggests Tuesday winds being a little stronger than Monday's thus elevated fire weather concerns are a possibility for Tuesday as well. Wednesday, the aforementioned low and associated surface front move through the area resulting in a chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening into overnight Thursday. Probabilistic guidance is suggesting a 70%-80% chance for measurable rain through majority of the CWA which remains consistent with recent model runs. Ensemble guidance is also staying steady with accumulations around a third of an inch. At this time, there is a chance for strong to severe storms as the environment will have plenty of shear. However, limited instability may restrict organized convection. Cooler temperatures expected for the second half of next week with the passage of the cold front. This will yield temperatures closer to seasonal normals. Potential rain returns next weekend with the passage of the next system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Winds are anticipated to shift to the south by late morning. A scattered deck of clouds is anticipated to develop around 3,000 ft mainly for KIXD, KMKC, and KMCI around 16Z. Cloud coverage is mainly expected to stay to the south of HWY 36 and west of HWY 65. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier