FXUS66 KOTX 021135 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 435 AM PDT Sat Nov 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern will continue through Monday with periods of valley rain and mountain snow. A drier pattern is forecast for the middle to end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday Night: An upper trough swinging across the Inland NW this morning will provide more precipitation to the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of Washington with snow levels around 5000 feet. Over Central WA mid level westerly flow will result in a rain shadow off the Cascades with much drier conditions today compared to what occurred on Friday. The unstable westerly flow will promote more snow showers along the Cascade crest above 3500 feet, leading to winter driving conditions over Stevens Pass. The Winter Weather Advisory for this area has been extended until 10 AM Sunday. A mid level wave dropping down from the northwest will keep snow showers persisting tonight into Sunday morning for Stevens Pass, while rain and mountain snow chances increase over SE Washington, the Camas Prairie, and Central Panhandle Mountains with the assistance of low level upslope flow. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for Lookout Pass starting 8 PM this evening. This wave exits the area Sunday afternoon with a short wave ridge for Sunday night bringing a brief period of quiet weather before the next system arrives. JW Monday through Saturday: A Low will push through the Pacific Northwest on Monday and bring a round of widespread precip to the region. It will bring cold air with it as it moves in from the Gulf of Alaska. The snow levels will drop to around 2500ft. Some locations over the northern Basin could experience rain/snow mix through the morning hours. Snow will mainly be confined to the higher terrains. Snow levels will rise to above 4000ft by the afternoon. The Low is also bringing a decent push of winds with 850mb winds reaching around 40kts during the afternoon. The Monday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. Highs will be in the 40s to low 50s. For the rest of the week, a strengthening ridge will taper off shower activity across the region Tuesday. It will be followed by a seasonal pattern of cool mild temperatures with little to no precip expected. Models are bringing a system through the region over the weekend. It is showing mainly mountain showers with little over the Basin. The drier air will allow for bigger diurnal swings through the days. Highs will continue to be in the 40s and low 50s. Lows will be trend colder with a range of the 20s and low 30s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A band of rain associated with a cold front from the Tri Cities up into NE Washington and the ID Panhandle will slowly move east through the day. Winds in the boundary layer will switch southwesterly early this morning with the cold front passage. Conditions will further deteriorate across the Spokane- Coeur d'Alene corridor (KGEG- KSFF- KCOE) and on the Palouse (KPUW) as ceilings lower. Drier air pushing down across the lee of the Cascades will act to raise ceilings in the afternoon Saturday. Precipitation will become showery across far eastern Washington and north Idaho after 20-22Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is moderate confidence in the ceiling forecast and low confidence in the surface visibility forecast at TAF sites. Ceilings will lower at KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW early Saturday morning with the cold front. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 49 34 46 33 45 33 / 100 20 30 0 90 80 Coeur d'Alene 44 35 44 34 44 33 / 100 60 50 10 90 90 Pullman 46 35 44 33 44 33 / 100 50 70 20 80 90 Lewiston 53 37 52 36 52 40 / 90 50 70 20 70 90 Colville 46 32 43 28 41 22 / 100 30 10 10 100 80 Sandpoint 42 34 45 33 40 31 / 100 60 40 20 100 100 Kellogg 41 34 42 33 41 34 / 100 70 80 50 90 100 Moses Lake 54 34 54 34 50 33 / 20 20 0 0 90 40 Wenatchee 52 35 55 37 50 38 / 10 30 0 10 90 60 Omak 51 31 50 33 46 30 / 10 10 0 0 90 60 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM PDT Sunday for Central Panhandle Mountains. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PDT Sunday for Western Chelan County. && $$