ACUS11 KWNS 050008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050007
MOZ000-ARZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...North-central Arkansas into south-central Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 705...

Valid 050007Z - 050100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 705 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe potential, including the risk of a tornado or two,
may be increasing over portions of north-central AR into
south-central MO -- on the eastern edge of Tornado Watch 705.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms out ahead of the main
convective line has shown a recent uptick in intensity and
organization over north-central AR into south-central MO. This may
be in response to a strengthening low-level jet from the south (see
LZK VWP) and associated surface pressure falls/increasing low-level
confluence. Boundary-layer moisture is also increasing ahead of
these storms (lower 70s dewpoints streaming northward), which should
aid in intensification despite modest instability. Large
clockwise-curved hodographs (around 400 m2/s2 effective SRH) will
support embedded right-moving supercells with an associated tornado
risk, and a strong tornado cannot be entirely ruled out given the
ample boundary-layer streamwise vorticity.

..Weinman.. 11/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36559312 37029294 37429243 37449210 37209190 36499224
            36159275 36269311 36559312