FXUS66 KEKA 072251
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
251 PM PST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to build, clearing skies and
bringing chilly overnight temperatures. Coastal stratus possibly
returns tonight. Rain is possible this weekend and early next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Gusty winds have diminished as high pressure
continues to move eastward with southerly winds due to arrive late
tonight into the Friday early morning hours. A shortwave pulse
can be seen in the mid level and lower level model pressure
heights. This shortwave will give the CWA an initial dose of
moisture Saturday, ahead of the amplifying trough. This will
immediately be followed by a more substantial and widespread rain
event, early Sunday morning. As for this evening, diminishing
offshore winds will bring back the potential for coastal stratus
and patchy fog overnight. Tonight, temperatures will once again be
chilly with mid to high 30s possible in many interior valleys and
some near coastal areas.


As previously mentioned, a shortwave trough is expected to move
through the Pacific Northwest Saturday. Rain amounts currently
don't look impressive, with NBM showing around a 60% chance for
Del Norte and a 40% chance for Humboldt to see a tenth of an inch
of rain. Probabilities are low outside of Del Norte and Humboldt.
The stronger system will arrive Sunday through early next week,
with NBM showing over a 90% chance for an inch of rain in Del
Norte and the King Range, a 70% chance for much of Humboldt, and a
30-50% chance for Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake Counties. Gusty
southerly wind is also a concern with this system, particularly in
coastal Del Norte, coastal headlands and ridges, and Lake County.
Details will become clearer in the coming days. /EYS /JB


&&

.AVIATION...SKC/VFR conditions continued across Northwest
California; the catalyst was due to a prevailing ridge, a thermal
trough extending over coastal waters, and weak offshore flow.
Basically, enjoyable weather conditions prevailed...with light
winds reported across the region. The Taf sites will stay mostly
unchanged through Friday (according to several model guidances).
However did add a few/sct stratus to the ACV Taf. The state of
weather will begin to change by late Friday. Today over the Cape
Mendocino offshore waters, there is a quasi-stationary low
rotation of clouds...but should mainly "stay at bay" and not truly
impact the coastal terminals. /TA


&&


.MARINE...Tonight into Friday morning, winds will become
southerly and increase slightly as a small surface low arrives.
Friday night into Saturday morning these winds are expected to
peak with some gale force gusts possible in the northern areas
well off the coast. Also on Saturday a larger long period swell is
expected to build in. The GFS wave model currently shows this
peaking around 12 feet at 12 seconds. This is expected to
gradually diminish later on Saturday. A second swell is now
expected on Sunday afternoon with heights around 12 feet and a
period of around 14 seconds. MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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