FXUS62 KILM 071727 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1227 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move farther off the East Coast over the next few days allowing for continued above normal temperatures. A cold front should push south through the area later Friday bringing a bit cooler and drier conditions for the weekend before the high shifts offshore and another cold front approaches Monday. && .UPDATE... After an absolute deluge of rain across parts of central South Carolina overnight, a much weaker swath of light rain is pushing off the South Carolina coast this morning. Synoptic lift is waning rapidly with weakening upglide noted on the 315K and 320K isentropic surfaces -- that's way up between 15k and 18k feet agl! As a 500 mb disturbance pushes off the coast soon, even this mid level lift will tend to weaken. Modest convective instability, 500 J/kg or less, will develop this afternoon as surface temperatures rise into the 75-79 range and this should support a smattering of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. No significant changes were made to temperatures, sky cover, or winds today. I did make tweaks to PoPs based on current radar and HREF/HRRR blends through this evening. I also included mention of fog developing tonight and lasting into Friday morning based on latest statistical guidance. Fog could even become dense and this wording may be added on subsequent updates. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today features a decent swath of UVVs via jet divergence aloft, subtropical gulf moisture streaming northeastward along with embedded mid-level s/w trofs/impulses pushing across the FA. All this combined will result in best chances of accumulating rains across the ILM SC CWA (away from the coast) to a lesser chance across the NE portions of the FA which is the ILM NC CWA. The flow aloft becomes more westerly later this aftn and tonight, whereby shunting the deep moisture southward. Will still have plenty of low level moisture this aftn and tonight, with weak mid level impulse(s) still in the neighborhood. Pop chances will be scaled back this aftn and to slight chance later this evening and overnight given a sfc cold front sagging southward that should reach the FA by the end of this period or soon there-after. Today thru tonights temps will likely only see a range of 10-14 degree diurnal range, with generally 70s for todays highs and 60s for tonights lows. May have to deal with a bout of dense fog and/or low stratus clouds tonight with plenty of low level moisture on tap and lack of any drying during today after the main pcpn shield. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The mid level forcing and deep moisture bringing the rainfall to the area today will be on the decline Friday with only slight chance residual pops. The surface pattern somewhat poorly defined Friday will acquire better definition by Saturday as a cold front moves across. With dry conditions temperatures although cooler than the near or actual record breaking recent values will remain somewhat elevated. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Marginal pops remain in the forecast for late Sunday into Monday as a system moves across from the west. Beyond this nothing really significant until a possible moisture challenged system late as the dry pattern marches onward. Temperatures will remain somewhat above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers will impact the terminals early this afternoon, with MVFR ceilings inland and some tempo IFR along the coast. Overnight, a very favorable fog setup should develop as a result of abundant low-level moisture and a very weak pressure gradient. LIFR conditions are anticipated beginning in the few hours before sunrise, improving after 14Z. Extended Outlook...There is moderate to high potential for occasional MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in convection Fri as a cold front drops thru. Otherwise, VFR will dominate Sat/Sun before additional restrictions possible late Sun into Mon. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Will continue with a relaxed sfc pg with winds speeds aob 10 kt thru the period. Determining the wind directions a bit tricky. Sfc high pressure centered offshore from the Carolinas, will ridge westward to the NC-SC border. Thus, looking at a S-SW wind direction NC waters today and E-SE for the SC Waters today. Sfc cold front will be dropping southward tonight and on the doorsteps of the local waters by daybreak Fri. For tonight, NC Waters wind directions becoming W-NW thu the night, for SC Waters, wind directions mainly Easterly. Seas will generally start at their peak for this period and only drop by a foot, possibly 2, tonight. Seas will be governed by a SE swell running at 8 to 9 second periods. Friday through Monday Night...Very light wind fields Friday officially from the north will transition to a better defined NE flow for the weekend. Still not anticipating any headlines with the strongest of winds in a range of 15-20 knots Saturday afternoon. After this the usual progression to an onshore to eventual southwest flow will develop into the late weekend as a system moves across around Monday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH/CRM MARINE...DCH/SHK