FXUS01 KWBC 070834
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024

...Heavy snow expected to impact portions of Colorado and New
Mexico while heavy rain, severe weather, as well increasingly
windy conditions across the Southern Plains through the next
couple of days...

...Heavy rain threat over the Southeast is expected to gradually
diminish by this evening...

...Hurricane Rafael is forecast to track more westward away from
the Florida Keys and into the Gulf Mexico through the next couple
of days...

...Record warmth continues from the Mid-Atlantic down into the
Southeast and along the Gulf Coast...

the Continental Divide central to southern Rockies and nearby High
Plains

Tropical moisture interacting with a disturbance under a broad
channel of southerly flow aloft has continued to produce heavy
rainfall across the Southeast this morning.  The main dynamics
associated with the disturbance is forecast to track
northeastward, allowing the heavy rain threat to diminish by this
evening as the disturbance tracks off the Carolina coasts.  WPC
currently maintains a slight risk of heavy rain from eastern
Georgia into portions of South Carolina for today.

Farther south, tropical-storm-force winds and squally downpours
associated with rainbands from Hurricane Rafael were impacting the
western portion of the Florida Keys this morning.  Rafael is
forecast to track more toward the west, allowing the tropical
storm conditions over the Florida Keys to gradually subside
through the remainder of today.

Meanwhile, a winter storm continues to get organized across
portions of the central and southern Rockies and into the nearby
High Plains.  A vigorous upper-level trough continue to plunge
south and usher polar air into the region while gradually develop
a low pressure system over the southern High Plains.  The compact
and vigorous nature of the upper low will help sustain the snow in
the general vicinity of Central/Southern Rockies into the nearby
High Plains (mostly within Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper
low rotates and lingers.  If the upper low deepens more than
expected, the associated snow could linger in the same area
farther out in time.  There is potential for a foot of snow to
fall across the Front Range of Colorado, while a few feet of wet
snow is possible farther south across the higher elevations near
the Colorado-New Mexico border and into northern New Mexico.
Winter Storm Watches and Warnings as well as Winter Weather
Advisories have been expanded across much of the aforementioned
areas.  In addition to producing snow, this vigorous upper low
could have changeable influences on the future track of Rafael in
the Gulf of Mexico.  Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.

In addition to the heavy snow, this low pressure system will bring
heavy rain and severe weather farther east across the Southern
Plains by Thursday.  The highest threat of heavy rain is forecast
to be expanding across western Texas toward southwestern Oklahoma
Thursday into Friday morning when the low pressure system develops
and intensifies over western Texas and then tracks northward.  A
band of severe thunderstorms can also be expected to sweep across
western Texas ahead of a potent cold front.  Much of the central
to southern High Plains will come under an increasing threat of
high winds as well especially by Thursday evening into Friday
morning when the low pressure system deepens most rapidly.  This
could result in gale force winds to accompany heavy snow on Friday
across the central High Plains in Colorado, while wind-swept rain
impacts Oklahoma and Kansas, and severe thundertorms sweep east
across Texas ahead of the potent cold front.  By Saturday morning,
much of the rain should be pushing east into the Arklatex region
and into the central Plains ahead of the low pressure system.
This will allow the southern Plains to dry out.  However, heavy
snow could linger across central Colorado into Saturday morning
depending on the strength of the low pressure system.

Much colder temperatures are expected across the West behind the
low pressure system and a cold front; with 30s and 40s across the
valleys and dipping into the single digits in the cool spots for
overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along
with lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires in the
Southwest over the next few days. Critical wildfire conditions
persist across California where Red flag warnings are in effect
for portions of coastal and interior California. The Storm
Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions highlighted for
southern California with an extreme area in the vicinity of Santa
Clarita which will carry over for today.  In contrast, record warm
minimum temperatures are forecast to continue from the
Mid-Atlantic down into the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast
through the next couple of nights.  High temperatures are not
quite reaching record levels but will remain well above normal for
these areas for early November.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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