ACUS11 KWNS 181010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181009
OKZ000-TXZ000-181215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Areas affected...parts of northwestern Texas and southwest into
central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 710...

Valid 181009Z - 181215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues.

SUMMARY...A narrow squall line may continue to pose a risk for
localized damaging wind gusts and isolated brief tornadoes while
approaching the I-35 corridor, including the Oklahoma City metro,
through 6-8 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...A narrow, strongly forced squall line, with embedded
meso-gamma scale cyclonic circulations continues propagating
north-northeastward into/across the Red River Valley vicinity.
Downstream of mid-level troughing taking on a more negative tilt
into and through the Texas South Plains, models indicate that this
may be maintained at least into the 12-14Z time frame.  Although
boundary-layer instability remains limited across southwest Oklahoma
into the I-35 corridor of central Oklahoma, stronger surface
pressure falls in advance of the deepening surface cyclone may allow
for sufficient boundary-layer warming and moistening to maintain a
risk for damaging wind gusts and additional brief tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 11/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   35549918 35769737 33589767 32939957 34769884 35549918