FXUS63 KFGF 210400 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1000 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow conditions over parts of eastern ND and northwest MN this evening, with a dusting of additional accumulation. Slick travel conditions continue through the night. - Additional snow is possible Saturday evening through Sunday, mainly along and north of Highway 200. There is a 70 percent chance for 1 or more inches of snow along the International Border, with a 40 percent chance along the Highway 200 corridor. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 It took a bit longer but the more organized area of light snow is finally showing signs of breaking up across the southern RRV with coverage decreasing. This is correlated with the mid level trough axis orientated to the west-northwest that is moving south and east. Some adjustments were made to timing/coverage of measurable snow, otherwise forecast remains on track with a tendency toward dry conditions or just scattered flurries after those remnant showers dissipate. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...Synopsis... H5 upper low slowly moves to the east southeast this afternoon and evening, thus removing synoptic support for ongoing snow. There is a low chance for scattered mesoscale bands of moderate snow heading through the evening hours, with CAMs showing development in and around the northern and central Red River Valley. Additional accumulation potential is somewhat low; however, visibility could be adversely impacted briefly. Winds gusts are expected to subside late this afternoon into the early evening hours; however, sustained northwest winds are expected to continue overnight in the range of 10 to 20 mph. Heading into the overnight period, light snow showers and flurries will slowly as the low continues eastward. Any potential clearing from west to east will be slow, but gradually we should see partly sunny skies Thursday afternoon, mainly west of the Red River Valley. Colder air is expected to continue settling into the area in the coming days as another system traverses the area this weekend. This will bring a chance for accumulating snow to parts of the region, mainly along and north of Highway 200. There remains some uncertainty still, but there is decent agreement among ensembles regarding the development of an upper low that will move across the southern Canadian Plains and into the Northern Plains. Accumulation potential is likely to change as we get closer, with current probabilities showing about a 70 percent chance for 1 inch or more snow from Highway 2, northward to the International Border. Following this system, much colder temperatures are supported, with highs in the teens to low 20s on Monday and lows in the single digits. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail across eastern ND and northwest through this evening into Thursday morning before eventually clearing. Visibilities are still in the 2-6sm range where light snow is lingering, and there have been brief reports of freezing drizzle early in the TAF period at KFAR. All measurable precipitation should come to an end by 03Z. West- northwest winds continue to diminish as stronger gradient and winds aloft transition to the south and southeast of the region, ending any linger blowing snow impacts to visibility after 03Z. A few flurries (non measurable snow showers) may lingering into the night, but impacts would be less. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR