FXUS63 KEAX 250452 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front moves through the area this afternoon into overnight Monday with temperatures dropping nearly 20 degrees F across the area. - Next chance for precipitation (25-35%) will be Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Rain looks more likely, but a wintry mix is possible. - Below normal temperatures expected after Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 A cold front, situated across far southeast Nebraska as of 20Z, is expected to move through the region this evening. There is a very slim chance (below 10%) for a sprinkle or two for central MO with FROPA. Increased cloud coverage associated with the system will keep most low temperatures above freezing tonight into Monday morning. Low temperatures tomorrow morning for ~75% of the CWA are expected to range in the 40s. Areas west of I-35 and north of I-70 will see lows in the low to mid 30s with the most northwestern areas closer to freezing. With continued cold air advection through the day Monday, temperatures will only warm slightly through the daylight hours. Drier air filtering into the region later in the day coupled with broadscale subsidence out ahead of an approaching surface ridge, decreasing winds and clearing skies will allow for a 15-20 degree (F) drop in temperatures for Monday night bringing us 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals. Tuesday afternoon, the surface ridge moves to the southeast of the area shifting our winds to the south, thus starting a weak warming trend. Tuesday afternoon is expected to be similar to Monday but with calmer winds due to the influence of the surface ridge. Some uncertainty still remains with the system moving through the area on Wednesday. Broadscale mid-level troughing on the eastern side of Canada will extend back into the Four Corners Region with the surface low approaching from the southwest passing through TX and OK. Broadscale lift and instability provided by the associated cold front will result in a 25%-35% chance for rain Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Some areas north of HWY-36 may see a wintry mix but chances are slowly fading. The timing of the precip does not seem to line up with the best thermodynamic profile for snow. Increased cloud coverage may also help keep temperatures warmer than freezing to ward off any snow chances. Best chances for snow at this time seem to remain to the north of the forecast area. Models trends have been fairly inconsistent, but more recent model runs seem increasingly bearish on the snow potential (10-15%). Thanksgiving seems to be cold and dry after the passage of the surface front. Below normal temperatures will be the trend for the second half of the week with low temperatures Friday morning potentially dipping into the mid teens for the northern half of MO. The pattern stays somewhat active with another system expected to move through the area next Saturday which may deliver a more promising snow potential. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 VFR ceilings to start the period, followed by MVFR cloud bases likely moving in around the 07-08Z timeframe. STJ could see these lower cloud bases earlier on. Breezy conditions are in store throughout this TAF interval, with wind gusts over 25 knots possible. Partial clearing and a return to VFR is forecast to begin around 16-17Z, with mostly clear conditions prevailing by the evening. Additionally, west-northwesterly winds should relax shortly after sunset. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Hayes