FXUS63 KEAX 100530 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024 ...06 Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front overnight, return to colder temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs in the 40s F tomorrow, upper 20s to lower 30s Wednesday. - Flurries and light snow Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Light accumulations possible across north central Missouri, no more than a few tenths of an inch in some locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024 Through 1930Z, mid-level water vapor imagery places the longwave mid- level trough stretched from the western Great Lakes to the western High Plains of CO/NE/KS. At the surface, the associated cold front continues to advance east/southeast across Nebraska and central Kansas; most notable in the wind shift across the Plains. Overnight, as the cold front transitions east and northwest flow sets in, temperatures will drop through daybreak, with Tuesday morning lows, dipping into mid to upper 20s. Tuesday night, the longwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S., with the trough axis extending from the Canadian Prairie to the ArkLaTex. An associated weak vorticity maximum and modest moisture look to be enough for snow flurries and light snow accumulations across portions of north central Missouri through Wednesday morning. Available moisture will be the primary question mark tomorrow night, with short range solutions suggesting 80 to 90% saturation through the dendritic growth zone. Only a few HREF members have a narrow swath of less than an inch of snow across northern Missouri, but the signal is there. The KC Metro continues to be on the western edge of any model swath, with only flurries expected overnight. The latest HREF ensemble has snow from north central MO to Columbia. 50th percentile of members is a Trace to 0.10." The 90th percentile (10 percent chance) is only 0.10 to 0.50." The way this is likely going to play out is going to be pockets or narrow swaths of modest light snow bands. Any location under one of these bands could see a few tenths of an inch, up to 0.5." Those not impacted by a band will see little to nothing. Snow chances will be short-lived, ending through daybreak, Wednesday. Colder temperatures will follow on Wednesday, with highs struggling to rise above freezing across much of the area. With the eastern exit of the H500 trough, near zonal flow will set up through the end of the week, with a return to warmer conditions. Into Friday, a short wave trough will emerge from the Rockies bringing a chance of light Rain Friday Afternoon and overnight into early Saturday. Latest mid-range solutions have colder air trailing the precip, keeping snow chances north in Iowa, more in line with the traditional TROWAl structure/setup as the surface low and short wave trough lift east-northeast across Iowa. Therefore, will keep precip all liquid for now. Brief mid-level ridging will introduce warmer temperatures Sunday into Monday next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with a couple of minor items of change/note. First, have pushed winds/gusts a bit higher with the frontal passage earlier this evening, primarily gusting into the lower to mid 20s kts for periods overnight and teens to lower 20s kts into the afternoon before easing further. Threat for MVFR stratus overnight has diminished, so have pulled out any mentions of ceilings around 2-3kft out of this issuance. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Curtis