FXUS66 KLOX 102218 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 218 PM PST Tue Dec 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...10/138 PM. The strongest winds have passed, however gusty winds are still expected through Wednesday morning, especially in the mountains. Critical fire weather conditions will continue through Wednesday. Cloudier and cooler conditions are likely for late week with a chance of light rain, mainly north of Point Conception. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...10/203 PM. After a strong push of Santa Ana winds this morning, winds have started to abate as the usual diurnal seabreeze develops near the coast in response to falling pressures across the interior. These onshore winds will make it a few miles inland, then reverse as again this evening as sinking cold air inland increases offshore gradients overnight. This will generate a little resurgence in northeast winds, however with much less upper level support and cold air advection, peak winds tonight will be much less in most areas than last night. For this reason, all high wind warnings are now cancelled, replaced by wind advisories in the mountains with peak gusts of 45-55 mph, and no wind advisories or warnings at lower elevations with peak gusts at or below 35 mph. It will be a cold night tonight in many areas, especially the Antelope Valley and in wind protected areas where temperatures will drop into the high teens and 20s in the colder areas. On Thursday the first of at least a couple storm systems move into northern and central California. Southern California will be on the very tail end of it and as such rain amounts will be very light at most and for areas south of Santa Barbara chances are higher for no rain. North of there most areas should receive a quarter inch or less. Increasing clouds, including some coastal fog, and cooler temperatures will be the biggest impact. A little pop up ridge will move through the area Friday for dry but relatively cool conditions. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...10/216 PM. A second system, this one with a slightly farther south trajectory, will move through California Saturday. Models have been steadily increasing rain chances and amounts as the trajectory has dipped farther south over the last several runs. But even with the latest ensembles rain amounts are still quite light, especially south of SLO County. Still looking at amounts under a tenth of an inch south of Santa Barbara, and mostly under a half inch to the north. Northwest SLO County, especially in the coastal mountains, could get as much as an inch. Dry conditions are expected Sunday into Monday morning, then the tail end of another weakening system is expected to come through the area later Monday into Monday night. Again with very light rainfall amounts at most. High temperatures through the period will be within a few degrees of normal, except 3-6 degrees above normal across interior areas. && .AVIATION...10/1752Z. At 17Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Wind gusts could be off up to +/- 10 kt for KOXR, KCMA, and KVNY. There is a chance for moderate LLWS and Turbulence through 22Z. There is a 40% chance flight cats fall below MVFR for KPRB from 09z to 17z Wednesday -- A 20% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conds. Otherwise, VFR conds are expected. KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds. There is a only a 10 percent chance of east winds greater than 8 knots 11Z-17Z. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds for 18z TAF. && .MARINE...10/152 PM. High Confidence in the current forecast through Wednesday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in wind and seas remaining below SCA levels through Thursday morning. SCA level wind gusts associated with a frontal passage is possible Thursday. Looking towards the weekend, SCA level seas look likely. A strong Santa Ana wind event is ongoing across the coastal waters south of point Conception. Dangerous marine conditions are expected to continue over the waters between Ventura Harbor and Point Dume, and from the Port of Long Beach south to near Dana Point. Strong northeast to east winds, and short-period, dangerous, wind-driven seas will continue to linger over the waters of the Southern California Bight. Although winds have subsided, small craft advisory level winds will continue within 20 Nautical Miles either side of a line from Point Mugu to the west end of Santa Cruz Island. Local gusts up to 35 kts are possible through Wednesday morning. East-facing harbors, such as Avalon and Two Harbors on Catalina Island, and Smugglers Cove on Santa Cruz Island, will likely see significant impacts from gusty winds and breaking waves at harbor entrances. ALL east-facing harbors will be unsafe during this event and should NOT be considered safe harbor during this event. These conditions have a history of vessel damage and loss of life. Mariners should avoid these areas, or remain in safe harbor until conditions improve. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence wind and seas remain below SCA levels through Thursday morning. SCA level wind gusts associated with a frontal passage is possible Thursday. Looking towards the weekend, SCA level seas look likely. For the Outer Waters, there is around a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts Wednesday evening/overnight for areas south of point conception near the channel islands for both PZZ673/676. Winds and seas will gradually increase to SCA levels for all outer water zones into thursday (70% chance). Good confidence in seas remaining high for the most part through the weekend. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence wind and seas remain below SCA levels through Thursday morning. SCA level wind gusts associated with a frontal passage is possible Thursday. Looking towards the weekend, SCA level seas look likely. && .BEACHES...10/332 AM. High astronomical tides approaching 7 feet during the early morning hours will bring a chance of moderate coastal flooding to southwest California shores as early as Thursday and through the upcoming weekend. Normally dry beach walkways and parking lots may see tidal overflows and minor coastal flooding. There is a chance that beach erosion may occur. Rip current activity may increase during the run up to high tide. && .FIRE WEATHER...10/217 PM. A strong Santa Ana event will continue to bring widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions to many areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Wednesday. For the Santa Susana Mountains, a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) Red Flag Warning will continue into Wednesday morning, while elsewhere over wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties Red Flag conditions will persist through Wednesday afternoon. Santa Ana winds will continue into Wednesday. The offshore winds are expected to diminish some by Wednesday, but a very dry air mass will persist. Widespread single digit humidities can be expected through Wednesday. There is high confidence of PDS Red Flag Warning conditions through Wednesday morning for the Santa Susana Mountains, with gusts up to 55 mph possible. Peak gusts of 40 to 50 mph will also affect most wind prone coastal and valley areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Wednesday morning. With the threat of these strong wind gusts in these windier corridors, there will be an increased risk for downed tree limbs and powerlines, along with power outages. The hardest hit areas will continue to be the San Gabriels, Santa Susanas, western Santa Monicas into Malibu, Ventura county valleys (especially Simi Valley and Moorpark), western San Fernando Valley (especially Highway 118/210 corridors from Porter Ranch to San Fernando), and the hills above Camarillo. Due to the expected long duration of dangerous fire weather conditions and critically dry fuels, there is the increased risk for any new ignitions to have very rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior (including long range spotting). Dry offshore conditions will likely persist into Wednesday night, shifting onshore on Thursday with a chance of rain mainly northern areas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones 288-358-369>372-374>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 354-355-362. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black BEACHES...Hall FIRE...Sirard SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox