FXHW60 PHFO 141938
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
938 AM HST Sat Dec 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure far to the north and northeast of Hawaii will drive
breezy trade winds through the weekend. A slight increase in
windward showers tonight into Sunday. Light winds are expected
through the first half of next week as a front approaches. This
front will move through Thursday with some showers along the
frontal band.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure far to the north and northeast of Hawaii will drive
breezy trade winds through the weekend. Visible satellite shows
scattered low clouds and isolated showers moving east to west
across the state. 12Z soundings show a strong inversion around 6
kft with a fairly dry 1.1 inch precipitable water. Plenty of dry
air aloft from a broad upper ridge over and just north of the
state. These stable conditions will keep rainfall pretty minimal
today. Tonight into Sunday, a weak upper trough will graze past
the northeast side of Hawaii and may bring some cloud and shower
enhancement. Any showers that do occur will focus over windward
and mauka areas.

Trade winds will weaken to a light and variable pattern from
Monday through Wednesday as a cold front approaches the state from
the northwest. This lighter flow will allow for the development
of land and sea breezes and limited shower activity over interior
and leeward areas each afternoon and land breezes helping to
clear out cloud cover overnight.

Current model guidance suggests that the cold front will move
into Hawaii during the second half of next week as it weakens.
Rainfall amounts do not appear to be very significant, and will be
brief as the front quickly moves through. Winds will strengthen
out of the north behind the front around Thursday and eventually
veer to the northeast by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trades continue through tonight, easing slightly on Sunday.
Clouds and showers will tend to focus windward and mauka with
patchy MVFR expected tonight and early Sunday morning, but VFR is
forecast to prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for lee turb.

AIRMET Tango may be needed for moderate upper turb over the
western half of the state tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds will prevail through Sunday,
easing Sunday night into early next week as the ridge weakens and
shifts south due to a series of cold fronts passing to the north.
Small Craft Advisory remains in place through the weekend over
the the windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big
Island. Starting late Sunday night, the trades will quickly ease,
likely enough for overnight and early morning land breezes and
daytime sea breezes. This pattern will persist through the first
half of next week as the background flow shifts southeast Sunday
night into Monday, then south to southwest Tuesday through midweek
as a cold front approaches.

Surf along exposed north and west-facing shores will gradually
ease over the weekend as the swell that filled in Friday moves
out. By Tuesday, surf will begin to rise again, with a significant
upward trend anticipated through the second half of next week.
This increase will be driven by a decent-sized fetch developing
over the far northwest Pacific, near the Aleutians from the Date
Line to the Kuril Islands. Heights could exceed warning-levels
late next week if conditions evolve as projected.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough through the
weekend but will gradually decrease late Sunday and into much of
next week as the trade winds diminish.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain near seasonal
averages, influenced by a mix of short-period southeast swells and
occasional longer-period background south-southwest swells.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels running higher than
predicted could lead to minor coastal flooding issues for
vulnerable low-lying coastal areas. The best chance for these
impacts will occur during the early morning high tides between
midnight and daybreak through the weekend


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
seven days. Relatively dry conditions will persist statewide
through Wednesday. A weakening cold front may drift into the
western islands from Thursday to Friday, briefly increasing
shower activity especially over the western half of the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Foster
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Kino