FXUS66 KLOX 150113
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
513 PM PST Sat Dec 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/239 PM.

Dry weather will return Sunday before another fast moving front
may brush northern areas with light rain Monday. Warm and dry
weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday, with gusty north to
northeast winds at times in wind prone mountains and valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...14/238 PM.

Our rain maker has largely fizzled out as the associated cold
front moved into Ventura County early this afternoon. This was
unexpected and a retrograding atmospheric wave was the likely
culprit with associated sinking air from aloft not only
eliminating the rain but also most of the clouds just offshore. A
few sprinkles or light showers are still possible through this
afternoon across Los Angeles County outside of the desert. Warning
level winds did materialize with this system with widespread
gusts of 45-60 mph with a peak gust of 73 mph recorded in the
Santa Lucia Range in San Luis Obispo County.

Breezy but mostly sub-advisory northerly to offshore winds are
anticipated in the storms wake Sunday through Tuesday with gradual
warming focused across coasts to coastal valleys leading with
widespread daytime highs in mid 60s to mid 70s by Tuesday. Drying
trends associated with the winds will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions at times.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/238 PM.

We have moderate confidence in a weak to moderate Santa Ana
Wednesday for the typical corridor within Los Angeles to Ventura
County with offshore flow (probably too weak to dub a Santa Ana)
possibly continuing into Thursday. Widespread highs in the 70s to
near 80 are likely for coasts and coastal valleys during this
time.

Low confidence in the forecast heading into next weekend. A very
strong Aleutian (Alaska) Low Pressure system will most likely
support stormy weather well offshore extending into the Pacific
Northwest. There is a 20-40 percent chance that the system will
move close to enough for rain at times for southwest California,
with highest chances across the Central Coast. We have somewhat
higher confidence in continuing near to above normal temperatures
with periods of mid to high clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0112Z.

At 2330Z AT KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

A weakening front will bring scattered showers through this
afternoon, dwindling in coverage and intensity south of Pt.
Conception.

Good confidence in TAFs xcp for KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB
Where in and out MVFR or low VFR cigs are possible through 07Z for
KOXR and KCMA and through 18Z for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of
BKN020 conds 04Z-11Z. There is a 30 percent of only ocnl BKN020
conds 11Z-18Z. Any east wind component will be under 6kt.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chc of BKN015
conds 11Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...14/1126 AM.

For the Outer Waters, SCA seas and winds will continue into the
afternoon for the northern waters and through Sunday for the
southern waters. There is a 50% chance for SCA level winds Monday
and Tuesday accompanied by steep seas across the Outer Waters.
There is a 20-30% chance for GALES Tuesday afternoon from Point
Conception south to San Nicolas Island.

For the Inner waters along the Central coast, SCA winds and seas
will gradually dissipate late this afternoon and early evening. Winds
will drop below SCA levels, but seas will remain steep through
Sunday. Conds look to remain sub advisory until seas build Tuesday
morning.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, SCA conds are not
expected through the rest of this weekend. There is a 50% chance
for SCA winds in the western portions Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Sunday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for
      zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Sunday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...jmb
SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis/RM

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox