FXUS66 KLOX 152016 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1216 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...14/900 PM. It will be dry through the upcoming week save for a chance of rain Monday across the Central Coast. Warmer and dry weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday, with gusty north to northeast winds at times in wind prone areas. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...15/732 AM. ***UPDATE*** Offshore flow was shifting from north to more of a northeast orientation this morning with gusts generally in the 20-35 mph expected in the Santa Ana wind cooridor and coastal foothills adjacent to the Central Coast. Brief advisory gusts (35-45 mph) will be possible in wind prone foothill locations this morning. Forecast is in good shape with no adjustments planned. ***From Previous Discussion*** Today is shaping up to be a very nice day. A little pop up ridge will move into the state and hgts will rise to 578 dam. By late morning skies will be sunny and this along with weak offshore flow (esp from the north) will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to the csts/vlys. The interior will cool some as colder air moves in from the interior. Despite the warming most areas will end up with below normal max temps. Max temps across the csts/vlys will end up in the 60s with just a few 70 or 71 degree readings for the warmest vly locations. Offshore flow will continue on Monday. The ridge will be pushed to the east by a system moving into northern CA. Skies will gradually become cloudier as the day progresses esp over SLO/SBA counties. A weak front will approach SLO county in the afternoon and a slight chc of rain will develop with the best chance Morro Bay and northward. The falling hgts will be overwhelmed by the offshore flow and lack of cool air advection into the interior. The Central Coast is the only area that will cool due increased onshore flow in the afternoon. The rest of the csts/vlys will see 2 to 4 degrees of warming while the interior heats up 4 to 8 locally 12 degrees. The front will bring the best chc of rain to the Central Coast Monday evening but any rain that does fall will be under a tenth of an inch everywhere except for the cstl foothills at the NW tip of the county. Skies will be mostly cloudy up north early but for the most part skies will only be partly cloudy. Another ridge, this time with 584 dam hgts, will move into the state on Tuesday. Offshore flow will continue esp from the north. There will be some canyon winds but under advisory levels. There will be decent amount of cold air moving in from the interior and this will cool the interior and reduce or eliminate the typical offshore warming across the csts and vlys. The Central Coast will see the most warming. Most cst/vly max temps will range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...15/305 AM. Looks like a moderate Santa Ana will develop Wednesday with a 4 mb push from the east and a 5 to 6 mb push from the east. Low end advisories look likely in the typical Santa Ana wind corridor. Good confidence that this will not be a strong Santa Ana as there is no upper level or thermal support. Look for 4 to 8 degrees of warming across the board. Most highs will be in the 70s with some lower 80s not out of the question. Mdls in good agreement that Thursday will be a very nice day as ridge will sit atop of the state and hgts will be near 584 dam. There will be enough offshore flow to keep the low clouds away but it will be 2 to 3 mb weaker than on Wednesday so while there will be some canyon winds they will not reach advisory levels. Some high level clouds may push through the ridge making it a partly cloudy day. Max temps will continue to rise across the interior but the csts/vlys will cool some as the offshore flow weakens. Mdls continue to struggle with the Fri/Sat forecast. A fairly significant trof will move into the west coast. Most of its energy, however, will be focused much further north of Srn CA. The timing and southern extent of the rainfall is still in question. Right now the best guess is that minimal rain will only affect SLO and SBA counties. Max temps should cool. Night through morning low clouds look probable due the onshore flow and cyclonic turning aloft. Skies will likely be partly to mostly cloudy as mid and high clouds move overhead. Most areas will cool some each day, but highs away from the beaches will remain above normal. && .AVIATION...15/2015Z. At 20Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX. High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the period with generally light winds. There is a 10 percent chance of IFR or lower cigs/vsbys at KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB between 04-12Z and between 10-18Z for KPRB. KLAX...There is a 10 percent chance of IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys between 04-12Z. High confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kts through the period. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions. && .MARINE...15/1210 PM. Inner Waters: 50-70 percent chance of SCA conds Tuesday afternoon and evening extending to the coast. A moderate Santa Ana likely peaking Wednesday will support a 40-60 percent chance of SCA conditions for wind prone cooridors of Ventura to Malibu and the San Pedro Channel to Catalina Island. Very Large west swell with breaking waves at west facing harbor entrances (focused across the Central Coast) possible as early as next weekend. Outer Waters: SCA winds or seas will continue through this evening with a 60-80 percent chance of returning for southern portion Monday evening and becoming more widespread by Tuesday afternoon. && .BEACHES...15/1209 PM. A series of very large westerly swells may support warning level surf as well as minor coastal flooding and erosion as early as next weekend focused across the Central Coast, potentially extending further south into west facing beaches of Ventura County. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/Munroe AVIATION...Munroe MARINE...Munroe BEACHES...Munroe SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox