FXUS65 KMSO 240904
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
204 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Rain turning to snow this morning

 - Widespread Valley Rain & Slush: Most valleys will transition to
   rain or a messy rain/snow mix this evening and overnight,
   leading to ponding on roads and localized slushy accumulations.

 - Colder Midweek Transition: A cold front Wednesday morning will
   bring a return to all snow for the valleys along with gusty
   winds and quick- hitting snow showers on Wednesday.

Low pressure off of the coast of Canada is sending Pacific
moisture into the Northern Rockies this morning. Satellite imagery
depicts the moisture fetch quite clearly. Radar returns indicate
the primary band of precipitation has slid a little further south
than previous thinking, currently aligned over Clearwater and
northern Idaho counties east through the Missoula and northern
Bitteroot valleys, then through the Blackfoot valley and to the
Continental Divide. This line aligns well with a boundary
delineating colder air to the north and warmer air to the south.
For this morning's commute, expect valley snow amounts of a trace
to 3 inches for the Missoula, southern Mission, northern
Bitterroot, and Blackfoot valleys, as well as I-90 east of
Missoula to Drummond by about 0900 MST. The frontal nature of the
north-south temperature boundary weakens by mid morning. There's
about a 50% chance of another trace to 2 inches by noon in the
aforementioned areas before snow tapers this afternoon. The
northern region of cold air will retreat this afternoon, resulting
in snow levels rising to 4,500 to 5,500 feet. This means most
valley locations will see a transition back to rain or a slushy
mix, while steady, heavy snow continues in the mountains.

A cold front will move through the Northern Rockies early
Wednesday. Rain will transition back to snow for most elevations
by Wednesday morning. We continue to watch the potential for snow
bands or squalls this evening through Wednesday. These can cause
sudden drops in visibility and rapid snow accumulation on roads
over short distances. The latest trends suggest that the snow
bands will focus south of I-90.

Westerly winds will turn gusty behind the front with 30-40 mph
gusts common on Wednesday.

Thursday/Friday: Expect scattered snow showers, primarily focused
on the mountains. Breezy winds will continue, and temperatures
will be near seasonal averages.

Next Weekend: Forecast models show a weak disturbance arriving on
Saturday. While not a major storm, it will likely keep light snow
chances in the forecast through the end of February.


&&

.AVIATION...Expect ceiling and visibility reductions at KMSO and
KHRF this morning as Pacific moisture leads to widespread
precipitation and lowering snow levels. Rain transitioning to snow
could become heavy at times, deteriorating conditions to IFR or
below through mid morning. Snow will transition back to rain after
noon. Precipitation will obscure terrain over the Bitterroot,
Clearwater, Mission, and Swan ranges, as well as the Continental
Divide south of about Marias Pass. A cold front will result in a
transition back to snow tonight.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
     West Glacier Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region...
     Lower Clark Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$