FXHW60 PHFO 250615 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 815 PM HST Tue Feb 24 2026 .UPDATE... Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is centered about 1500 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving moderate to locally breezy northeasterly trade winds across the island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage the greatest in windward and mauka areas. Radar imagery shows numerous showers affecting windward slopes and coasts, with a few showers spilling over into leeward areas at times. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will hold in place to the distant north, maintaining moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with the occasionally leeward spillover. There should be a decrease in shower coverage and leeward penetration of showers on Wednesday as building low to mid-level ridging helps to lower inversion heights across the state. && .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge moving over the area has brought a return of trade winds and cooler, drier air. Trade showers, mostly windward and mauka, will continue through Thursday. An approaching trough will turn winds out of the southeast Friday, allowing warmer more moist air to move into the region. A wet cold front appears to be headed into the state Sunday and may linger for a couple days. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 357 PM HST Tue Feb 24 2026/ Issued at 356 PM HST Tue Feb 24 2026 Satellite shows mostly cloudy skies windward and mauka, and partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Radar is picking up trade showers, mainly windward and mauka, with rainfall amounts relatively light. Winds were averaging 10-20 mph, and mostly coming out of the northeast. An upper level ridge axis will continue to move from west to east tonight through Thursday. As it finally moves off to the east Thursday night, we will begin to feel the effects of an approaching upper trough. This will help create lower surface pressure to our northwest, and veer our surface winds out of the southeast. Warmer and more moist air will be drawn into the area, and a land- and sea-breeze pattern will likely develop this weekend. As the upper trough axis gets closer, a cold front will move close to the western part of the state late Friday. The latest guidance depicts this front as then stalling for 24 to 48 hours before pushing well into the state Sunday. Showers are expected to increase across western islands first, then all the way to the Big Island late Sunday into Monday. These system are always difficult for guidance to accurately forecast this many days out, so expect some changes to timing and location as we go through the workweek. At this time, the potential is there for periods of heavy rain this weekend and into early next week. AVIATION... Issued at 815 PM HST Tue Feb 24 2026 Moderate NE trades continue this evening before veering more easterly tomorrow. Low cigs and SHRA are primarily impacting windward and mauka areas, with some spillover into leeward areas. IFR/MVFR conds possible within SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails. AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc is in effect for Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conds should improve in the morning hours. MARINE... Issued at 356 PM HST Tue Feb 24 2026 Strong high pressure remains far north of the state, while a weakening surface trough lingers near the southeastern coastal waters. Northeasterly trade winds look to strengthen to fresh to strong speeds through tonight before gradually easing to locally strong speeds primarily over the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island on Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect across all Hawaiian coastal waters through tonight due to a combination of winds and mainly seas above SCA criteria, thanks to the large north northeast swell currently impacting the islands. An approaching front will likely cause winds to decline and veer out of the southeast Thursday night into Saturday. A large, long period north-northeast (010-030 deg) swell peaked early this morning and is expected to continue to gradually decline through the end of the week. This swell will produce breaking waves at High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels across most north and east facing shores through Wednesday. Due to the direction of the large swell, exposed west facing shores of West Maui, western Molokai, and North Kohala on the Big Island will also experience High Surf Advisory conditions through early Wednesday morning. In addition to this swell, a small pulse of overlapping west- northwest swell is expected through Wednesday. Due to the direction of the large north-northeast (010-030) swell, some overwash will continue to be possible along low-lying coastal roads and infrastructure in windward areas, especially in the Keaukaha area east of Hilo. Hazardous conditions and heavy surges will continue to be possible in north facing harbors, mainly in Hilo and Kahului, and a Marine Weather Statement remains in effect to highlight this threat. Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny to flat through the end of the week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala- Kauai North-Kauai East-Koolau Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North- Windward Haleakala-Big Island East-Big Island North. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ UPDATE...Jelsema DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...DT MARINE...Shigesato