FXUS01 KWBC 040800 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 AM EST Wed Mar 04 2026 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026 ...Frontal system to bring showers and potentially severe thunderstorms between the southern Plains and Ohio Valley over the next two days... ...Potent cold front to cross the western U.S. and Rockies by midweek, producing gusty winds and mountain snowfall... ...Above-average temperatures are forecast to become widespread across the southern half of the Nation this week, with some daily record highs from the southern Plains to the Southeast... An active early spring weather pattern will persist across the Continental U.S. through the end of the week. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley this morning (Wednesday) will continue eastward and gradually diminish through the day. However, the slow-moving frontal boundary draped across the region will remain in place and serve as a renewed focus for convection. By mid to late afternoon, new thunderstorms are expected to develop farther southwest across the ArkLaTex and mid-Mississippi Valley, then track northeastward into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. These storms may produce areas of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. Some of the storms that develop may become strong to severe. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is in place Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from North Texas to the lower Ohio Valley. The strongest storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. By Thursday into Thursday night, the severe threat is forecast to shift westward into the western High Plains, from the Texas Panhandle to western Kansas, as convection intensifies along the dryline ahead of an ejecting storm system emerging from the Rockies. Across the western U.S., a Pacific storm system and associated cold front will steadily push inland through the Intermountain West and into the Rockies. This system will usher in colder temperatures and lowering snow levels. Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is likely through Friday morning across the higher elevations of the central and northern Rockies, as well as the Cascades. The Sierra Nevada should largely be spared significant impacts, though lighter accumulations are possible across the mountains of northern California. Gusty winds are also expected as a tightening pressure gradient develops. In addition, elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions may develop Thursday across much of New Mexico into far western Texas due to gusty winds and very low relative humidity. Meanwhile, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue to make headlines through the remainder of the work week. A broad area of well above normal warmth is expected from Texas into the Southeast, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-70s to mid-80s. The warmth will extend northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley, where highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s are anticipated. One notable caveat involves a strong backdoor cold front expected to press southward from the Northeast. This boundary may create a sharp temperature gradient from northern Virginia to New Jersey, with areas north and east of the front potentially much cooler. The broader Northeast is likely to remain on the chilly side, as low-to mid-level flow appears insufficient to fully dislodge the entrenched cool air mass. Hamrick/Pereira Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$