FXUS63 KFGF 142101 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 401 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A major winter storm will impact southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota starting late this afternoon, lasting into Sunday. Heavy snow amounts 5 to 10 inches, near blizzard conditions, and significant drifting snow will create dangerous and potentially impossible travel conditions. - Near blizzard conditions are expected overnight tonight into Sunday morning within far southeast North Dakota and southern Red River Valley. There is a 50% chance blizzard conditions will develop. - Freezing rain and accumulating snow may bring travel impacts Tuesday. The probability for advisory level impacts is 60 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Vigorous upper extending out of the northern Pacific into the northern tier of the CONUS. Within this jet is a distinct break where a strong upper trough is deepening resultant of building upper ridging in its wake. As the upper trough deepens and treks eastward across the Northern Plains into Upper Midwest today and Sunday, a major winter storm/blizzard will impact these regions, including winter warning-type impacts within southeast ND into west- central MN. More details on this found below. Well below average temperatures Sunday combined with breezy north winds will make for blustery conditions Sunday as well as drifting snow for those who received snow on Thursday, with seasonably cold conditions extending into Monday as well. Upper ridging out of the West will spread its influence into the Northern Plains next week, trending temperatures toward above average by mid/late week. The transition between seasonably cold air mass Monday and incoming warmth aloft will induce unsettled weather as a clipper dips out of Canada into Minnesota around Tuesday. This will bring a period of winter precipitation including accumulating snow and ice from freezing rain. This introduces potential for travel impacts, with 60% chance for advisory-level impacts. ...Winter storm impacts today into Sunday... A deepening, strong Colorado Low pressure system move through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest today/tonight, eventually occluding in the western Great Lakes region Sunday. Rich available moisture and strong forcing for ascent will generate a swath of heavy snow exceeding 5 inches from near the ND/SD border, and through much of eastern SD and central/southern MN. The northern reaches of this swath is most likely to spread into locations of southeast ND and west-central MN, with highest totals potentially 9-12 inches near the SD border. There is still some variability in where exactly this swath of heavy snow will set up within these areas. It is still possible, much of the heaviest snow stays more confined to near the SD border; although a low chance scenario also exists where higher amounts overspread to near the I-94 corridor, including the Fargo-Moorhead metro which holds a 10% chance of seeing 5-8 inches. This snow combine with gusty winds up to 45 mph tonight into Sunday morning to bring near blizzard conditions with visibility frequently between half to quarter mile, at times steadily quarter mile or less. Additionally, areas that receiving heavy snow and gusty winds will experience significant drifting snow. The combination of heavy snow, near blizzard conditions, and significant drifting brings the expectation of dangerous travel conditions tonight into Sunday morning in these ares, including the possibility of impossible travel conditions. ...Near blizzard conditions... There is still a 50% chance for blizzard conditions to develop in far southeast ND and southern Red River Valley tonight into Sunday morning. While heavy snow rates combine with northeast/north winds 25-35 mph will likely bring its own whiteout conditions, the lack of strong cold air advection and more robust pressure gradient during the period of heavier snow rates lowers our confidence in true blizzard conditions developing. Hence, this is why we are messaging "near blizzard" conditions. Winds do increase between 35-45 mph in these areas Sunday morning, but current guidance suggests only light snow will be falling. These snow rates and winds combine with temperatures in the teens do not quite match up to true blizzard conditions per blowing snow guidance from HREF. Should heavier rates linger longer and/or strongest winds with the strengthening pressure gradient arrive sooner, blizzard conditions will likely develop. Should the latter scenario arise, an upgrade to Blizzard Warning will be necessary. Into Sunday afternoon, blowing and drifting snow will likely continue in the southern Red River Valley. However, at this time, confidence is not high enough to extend any warning or advisory through Sunday afternoon, mainly due to uncertainties in wind strength and placement of newly received snow. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Aviation impacts stem from increasingly gusty winds, lowered ceilings, and snow/blowing snow reducing visibility. Each TAF has its own timing of such impacts, with most sites starting impacts between 06Z-12Z Sunday. Ceilings are most likely to remain in the MVFR category, although there is a low chance for periodic instances of IFR. Visibility reductions from snow/blowing snow will be lowest in southeast ND and west-central MN, including KFAR where 1/2SM is forecast. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ038-039. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ049-052-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ003. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ024-027-028. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ029. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ030>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ