FXUS66 KMTR 222155 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 255 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly above seasonal averages through the week - Dry weather through the 7 day outlook && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 (This evening through Monday) The region is generally clear with a few high clouds. A more zonal (east to west) flow pattern in the upper levels is promoting an onshore wind and a slightly expanded marine layer around 1000 ft thick, with the end result being that the immediate coast sees temperatures close to the seasonal average with highs in the lower to middle 60s while the interior valleys remain rather warm, as highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s keep those regions around 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal averages. Some low clouds are possible at the immediate coast early Monday morning, with morning lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations to the middle 50s to the lower 60s in the higher elevations. On Monday, a low-amplitude ridge will develop over the state, with the overall impacts remaining relatively minor as temperatures remain within a few degrees of today's highs. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) The low-amplitude ridge continues to develop through the early part of next week, before slowly moving off to the east beginning Wednesday into Friday. This will keep the temperatures relatively warm for this time of year, but relatively cool when compared to last week's record-breaking heat. Conditions remain generally stable through the 7-day outlook with onshore flow during the afternoons and evenings, highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s in the inland valleys, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to show a second broad, low-amplitude trough developing this weekend, although an embedded short-wave trough will mediate the impacts. The cluster analysis also shows the next chances for rain arriving for the last couple days of March into the first days of April, with increasing probabilities for scattered light rain across the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Satellite imagery this morning shows some high clouds passing over the region, with some patches of stratus lingering around the Central Coast. Nearly all TAF sites are reporting VFR at this time, with the exception being KHAF, where MVFR visibility is occuring. Checking the surrounding cameras there this seems legitimate and the question becomes, how long does this stay put. Opted to hold reduced MVFR cigs through the early afternoon, with perhaps a period of VFR conditions into the evening before faltering some overnight. Low to moderate confidence for KHAF. High confidence in VFR conditions elsewhere. Vicinity of SFO...Onshore winds will gradually increase this morning and into the afternoon, peaking around 15-18kt. Gusts up to 21kt will be possible with winds easing to less than 10kt around 8Z. Breezy onshore winds are expected to return Monday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently, VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites around Monterey Bay. A pesky patch of stratus lingers in the Bay, hugging the coastline down to Point Sur State Historic Park. KMRY as a result, has brought in a SCT006 group in for the last observation, though there is uncertainty with how long this will last. Conditions should remain VFR through the period. There is a small chance for stratus returning to the terminals around or just after sunrise. Opted to hint at that possibility rather than bringing them fully down. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 255 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Fresh to strong northerly winds continue to affect the outer waters with near gale force gusts lingering. Within 10NM moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected. Hazardous seas continue, with winds decreasing by Monday morning and seas will gradually subside in as a result. Moderate seas are expected by Tuesday, which will be accompanied with light to moderate winds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea