FXUS63 KFGF 251210 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 710 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for light rain and possibly some wintry mixed precipitation tonight into early Thursday. Probability of advisory level impacts is 10 percent. - Drying fuels may intermittently support low end fire danger this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 707 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Updated hourly temps with NBM. Much cooler air pushes south, more so than prev fcst. Cold front near DVL-GFK then northwest toward Roseau at 12z. UPDATE Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 00z model runs really not doing very well in my opinion with activity in Canada and in North Dakota. Main upper wave is moving into NW Ontario with weak surface low in far northwest MN. Another wave in southern Saskatchwean. Behind the first low there is colder air with a northeast wind in Manitoba and a north wind in far northern ND at 08z. HRRR and other short term models take colder air southward today to around Grand Forks where temps will hold in the 40s this aftn...with 30s farther north and 60s far south. There is an area of light rain that continues to push east-southeast thru central ND and did include some low pops for -ra in that area from Cooperstown to Fargo for this 11z-13z period. For tonight position of where precipitation will be does vary from more north position in central/east central ND into MN from the short term models, to more southerly position from most global models and AI models. Consensus from neighboring offices was to lean toward the southern soln. This does bring some light rain eastward, esp overnight thru south 1/2 of the fcst area into MN. Some risk of wintry mix on north edge of where the precipitation will be but due to lower than usual confidence in location of this precipitation area and sfc temps chances for advisory level impacts remain 10 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 West to northwesterly flow aloft will continue into the mid-week period, with periodic amplifications as shortwaves move through southern Canada. One such shortwave will come through Wednesday night into Thursday, and finally push the frontal boundary that has been lingering over the CWA south and bring temps in most areas down below normal. West to northwest flow continues into the weekend and the start of the coming work week, with heights rising back up and a return to above average temperatures in most of the forecast area. The ensembles are starting to show signs of flow becoming more southwesterly by the end of the period, but predictability in the details is low at this point. ...Sharp temperature gradient into Wednesday... Surface frontal boundary pushing to near the international border this afternoon, with southeasterly winds across most of the forecast area. Still around a 20 degree a temperature difference between Langdon and Fergus Falls thanks to snow cover. The gradient will be even sharper tomorrow as the cooler air in Canada starts to sink back to the south, and surface winds south of the boundary become more southwesterly to westerly. A few spots near the SD border could get close to 70 tomorrow afternoon, while counties along the Canadian border remain in the 30s. Frontal boundary should push south finally Wednesday night into Thursday as a trough digs into Manitoba and Ontario. ...Mixed precipitation Wednesday into Thursday... Some of the ensemble members bring some very light precipitation north of the frontal boundary tomorrow morning as a weak lead shortwave moves through. Some of the CAMs however, are less impressive and do not have much reaching the ground. Better precipitation chances expected Wednesday night into Thursday as the front moves down, with some frontogenesis possible. HREF probabilities of precipitation type shows some mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow, and this seems reasonable given model soundings. However, at this point the best probabilities for the higher QPF are for rain, and while the probabilistic WSSI does show a 50-50 shot for some winter precipitation, the chances for advisory level impacts are still very low, around 10 percent. ...Fire weather concerns... Dew points have dropped to near 20 percent near the Red Lakes, although fortunately the winds have been light and from the southeast. Southwesterly winds tomorrow will pick up at 10 to 15 mph in parts of southeastern ND, but dew points will be a bit higher and afternoon RH values are expected to stay in the upper 30s to 40 percent. Cooler and some moisture on Thursday, but Friday and into the weekend some locations could drop to 30 percent or lower. Will continue to keep an eye on fire weather as fuels dry out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 707 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Cold front and a wind shift to the north is located DVL-GFK at 12z and will push south. How fast the north wind gets into Fargo is questionable though as at some point it will run into resistance as south wind at the sfc maintains ahead of tonights wave. IFR cigs far north look to drop south and may reach DVL- GFK before dissipating into more MVFR deck for mid morning and after. VFR anticipated today FAR-BJI...with TVF on the edge of MVFR/VFR this aftn. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Riddle