FXUS65 KBOI 080917 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 317 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures through Friday. - Showers and thunderstorms over SE OR and the ID-NV border today and tomorrow, expanding over the region Friday afternoon. - Slight chance of stronger afternoon storms on Friday through Sunday with gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and small hail. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... A low pressure system off the West Coast will move towards shore through the work week, bringing southerly flow aloft to our region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over southern portions of southeast Oregon and near the Idaho- Nevada border this afternoon as moisture from the low moves onshore. Ahead of the low, a ridge of high pressure will briefly build into the region, allowing for temperatures to increase to 10-15 degrees above normal on Thursday and Friday. This heating, combined with a steady southwest push of moisture from the low off the coast, will keep the chance of afternoon thunderstorms over southeast Oregon and the ID-NV border around 20-30% on Thursday. The low will move onshore on Friday afternoon, increasing chances of thunderstorms and widespread showers over all of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. This substantial instability and moisture will bring increased risk of stronger thunderstorms through Friday night with hazards including gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain. Current rainfall totals look to bring up to a half of an inch of rain over Harney County and Malheur County, with up to an inch over Steens Mountain. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period. Another low will move in quickly behind the quickly eroding low on Friday night. Long range deterministic and ensemble models disagree on the path of the low as it moves onshore, which will bring slight variation in precipitation totals for the region. However, all models show widespread precipitation over the region from Saturday through Monday. Saturday afternoon looks to have an increased chance of stronger thunderstorms and showers as the stronger cut off low moves onshore with much cooler air behind it. Gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rain are the main hazards with these storms, but significant instability and shear aloft could lead to a few severe storms with strong winds. The two day rainfall total will depend on elevation with valleys seeing anywhere from 0.25-0.75 inches of rain with mountains accumulating 0.75-1.25 inches. The position of the low will also determine temperatures, and therefore, snow levels. Temperatures will dip below freezing at elevations above 3500-4500 feet on Monday and Tuesday morning. Snow levels will dip from 6000-7000 feet on Sunday to around 4000-5000 feet overnight on Monday and Tuesday. Two day snowfall totals look to be less than 3 inches for mountain valleys, with localized higher amounts up to 6 inches over high peaks. Conditions will briefly dry out Tuesday into Wednesday as a ridge builds in ahead of a shortwave trough passage to our north late Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1203 AM MDT WED APR 8 2026 VFR under areas of mid-high clouds. Scattered showers and a 15% chance of thunderstorms along the northern NV border Wednesday afternoon, mostly in Oregon. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will spread further north on Thursday. Surface winds: mostly W-NW 5 to 15 kt. Winds aloft at 10 kft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt, dropping to 10-20 kt after 12Z Wed. KBOI...VFR. Light and variable surface winds overnight, becoming northwest, but remaining light on Wednesday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....SA AVIATION.....DG