ACUS11 KWNS 132012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132011
TXZ000-132215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...portion of the Texas Big Bend into Edward Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 132011Z - 132215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing across
portions of southwest Texas/northern Mexico, with large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and GLM Flash data depict isolated
thunderstorm development across Stockton Plateau in southwest Texas
and the Sierra del Carmen in northern Mexico. Surface temperatures
in the upper-70s and dewpoints in the mid-60s F ahead of an
approaching dryline are supporting 2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Straight,
elongated hodographs amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and
steep mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km (per latest mesoanalysis)
will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out should a
supercell persist into the late evening hours as the nocturnal
low-level jet strengths, supporting some increase in low-level
shear/hodograph curvature. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this
time owing to the expected isolated storm coverage. Trends will
continue to be monitored, and a watch may be needed should the
threat magnitude/coverage trend higher.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29510342 29870336 30300300 30960236 31600151 31820091
            31710039 31270014 30950010 30420008 29750021 29000050
            28940075 29090084 29380121 29670165 29730226 29610260
            29410274 29350312 29510342

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN