FXUS63 KBIS 261749
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium to high chances for precipitation this afternoon into
  Monday morning, mainly south of Highway 2, though forecast
  precipitation amounts has lowered.

- Mainly dry conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest
  of the week.

- Below average temperatures continue through the first part of
  the week, then a warming trend develops.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Light snow showers continue to stream into the northwest. In
South Dakota the rain is getting closer, timing looks to be
around the later afternoon in the south. Adjusted the PoPs in
the northwest to reflect reality.

UPDATE
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The rain and snow showers have moved into the northwest, however
there has been no ground truth yet. The rain with the main show
is still deep into South Dakota. The forecast was updated with
the latest NBM data.

UPDATE
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Going forecast remains in good shape. No changes needed at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Current surface analysis places low stretching from Saskatchewan
into Manitoba, with high over North Dakota into northern
Minnesota. Upper level analysis places low over central
Saskatchewan, with trough dropping towards secondary low over
southern Nevada. Over our area, quiet weather continues.

The main story for our forecast continues to be the
aforementioned secondary upper low passing over the Rockies,
and affiliated surface low spinning up to the lee of the Rockies
later today over southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico. This
system will then eject towards the upper Midwest overnight
tonight through Monday. The main concern is that the latest
round of guidance has backed off on precipitation amounts.
Although most locations south of Highway 2 are likely to see at
least some precipitation, the area with medium to high chances
(40 percent or greater) of seeing a quarter inch or more of
rainfall is now limited to along and south/southeast of a line
from Bowman to Bismarck to Carrington, which was notably further
to the northwest yesterday.

On Monday system does a gradual departure. Main story on Monday
may switch from rain to wind as the surface low lifts through
the central plains into the upper Midwest, with a modestly tight
pressure gradient developing on its backside. This would bring
gusty northerly winds to central North Dakota into the James
River Valley.

From Tuesday through Thursday, some low chances for showers
occasionally pass through southern portions of the area but
overall looks to be dry. Temperatures will be on a very slow
warming trend, with NBM quite confident in temperatures
remaining a bit below average to start, closing in on average by
Thursday. Warming trend continues to end the week with
seasonably mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR this afternoon. Light snow showers are possible in the
northwest currently. This evening rain showers will move in from
South Dakota and mostly spread statewide. MVFR or IFR CIGs are
expected in the rain. Far northern ND looks to stay dry. Winds
this afternoon will be southeasterly gusting around 20kts,
calming after sunset.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Smith