ACUS11 KWNS 282151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282151
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-282345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...western and Middle Tennessee into southern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 174...

Valid 282151Z - 282345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 174 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to persist downstream across
western and middle Tennessee and possibly into parts of southern
Kentucky as an MCV migrates east through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest KNQA imagery shows a developing MCV near north
of the Memphis, TN area. Additionally, swaths of severe wind have
been noted in velocity imagery in the vicinity of the MCV. This
feature is expected to continue east/northeast over the next few
hours through an axis of higher MLCAPE values located downstream
across middle TN into southwest KY where surface dewpoints remain in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Although downstream VWPs show more meager
low-level helicity compared to locations further west/southwest,
sufficient hodograph elongation through a deep layer appears
sufficient to maintain organized convection - most likely in the
form of convective bands/clusters capable of producing severe winds
and perhaps embedded circulations. Downstream watch issuance will
likely be needed as this activity approaches the eastern bounds of
WW 174.

..Moore.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35048892 35408923 35818937 36208924 36678877 37208685
            37788473 37748395 37398351 36948334 36628348 36128410
            35108722 35008783 34928841 34908872 35048892

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN