ACUS03 KWNS 300729 SWODY3 SPC AC 300728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia Saturday with potential for some of this activity to become severe. ...Discussion... Within amplified ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific by the outset of the period, models indicate that a mid-level high may begin to form over the northeastern Pacific, roughly near 50N/140W, while an evolving low to its south digs offshore of the California coast. Downstream flow is forecast to remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, with one notable short wave perturbation pivoting east of the Ozark Plateau through the Mid Atlantic coast by 12Z Sunday. This likely will be preceded by a shearing impulse, emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific today, across the eastern Gulf Coast states through southern Mid Atlantic by late Saturday afternoon. In lower-levels, models indicate that these developments will be accompanied significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. It remains a bit unclear whether this will initiate from a developing frontal wave initially offshore of the Carolina coast, before migrating northeastward, or in association with continuing development of a wave initially forming Friday near/offshore of the lower to middle Texas coast. Regardless, in association with the wave approaching from the Gulf, a corridor of pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization appears possible across the Florida Big Bend vicinity through southern Georgia/northern Florida Atlantic coastal areas by mid to late Saturday afternoon. Coinciding with strengthening southwesterly to westerly wind fields, including 30-70+ kts in the 850-500 mb layer, if this occurs, it is possible that the environment could become conducive to severe thunderstorm development. This may include evolving supercell structures, and perhaps a small organizing convective system. ..Kerr.. 04/30/2026 $$