ACUS11 KWNS 302048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302047
TXZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Areas affected...Texas Big Bend into Concho Valley and Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 302047Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of large hail are possible this
afternoon into early evening. A WW is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A small area of elevated thunderstorms is ongoing as of
2040z in the vicinity of Junction, TX, with potentially more
surface-based storm development occurring farther to the west along
the higher terrain in the vicinity of Marathon, TX. Latest objective
analysis suggests these storms are occurring in a modestly unstable
air mass, characterized by MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Ambient wind
shear through a deep layer remains strong (e.g., effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 55-65 kt), so the potential exists for supercell
structures capable of large hail.

The current expectation is that any hail threat will remain isolated
and somewhat marginal in intensity into early evening. As such a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch isn't expected at this time.

Storm coverage and intensity may tend to increase later this evening
into tonight with the arrival of stronger forcing for ascent
attendant to a low-latitude short-wave trough moving through
northwest Mexico. Comparably greater potential for a watch will
exist at that time.

..Mead/Smith.. 04/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30170316 30740284 31010033 30789863 30169856 29639905
            29489991 29350047 29540093 29850136 29890264 29950298
            30170316

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN