FXUS63 KFGF 130419 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1119 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are again expected over parts of the region each afternoon Wednesday through Saturday. - Gusty south to southeast winds are well supported on Thursday across a large part of the area, including the Red River Valley and eastern North Dakota. Wind gusts to 55mph or greater are possible. && UPDATE Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 Winds have diminished this evening, with most areas seeing wind speeds in the 5-10 mph range. Looking into the overnight period, look for generally light and variable winds and mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Patchy frost could form across parts of northwest and north central Minnesota. UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 Gusty northwest winds remain persistent across much of the area with gusts still reaching upwards of 40 mph. Blowing dust is being observed across much of the central and southern Red River Valley, as well as portions of northwest Minnesota. Visibility reductions as low as 1/2 mile have been reported at times. Winds will slowly taper off after sunset, eventually becoming light and variable overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper low rotating off towards Lake Superior will leave the Northern Plains in northwesterly flow aloft tonight. The pressure gradient will relax this evening as the surface low pulls east and high pressure builds into the region. A bit of a break from the wind tomorrow with the surface high nearby, but rising upper heights and 850mb temps along with mostly sunny skies will boost highs in the 70s. Another strong shortwave trough will move towards the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border Thursday, with pressure gradient and winds increasing again out of the south. Some signals for precipitation along the surface trough axis late Thursday into Thursday night, and a few of the models show some elevated instability. Probabilities for thunder are 20 percent and under. That shortwave moves off into Ontario on Friday, with strong west winds as the surface low moves by to the northeast. Near zonal to southwesterly flow aloft sets up for the weekend into early next week, with the highest chances for an embedded shortwave and thus some precipitation on Sunday. ...Headlines for winds this evening as well as Thursday and Friday... Current winds gusting to 40 mph or greater across eastern ND and west central MN this afternoon, and with a bit more mixing to be had they could ramp up a bit more during the next few hours. Some spots seeing some patchy blowing dust so included a mention in the grids. Probabilities of wind gusts over 40 mph stay above 50 percent through 00Z, then the winds should drop off. Tomorrow will be fairly quiet as even with good mixing up to 700mb again the upper level winds are fairly week. While not much cold air advection, plenty of mixing up past 800mb should help bring 45 kts plus down to the surface. Similar mixing and even higher winds aloft could bring the over 50 kts aloft down to the surface at times. There is some 50 percent probability of winds over high wind criteria Friday afternoon, but it is in the NBM's usual high bias spot in the central RRV. Could see warning criteria but given current headlines and Friday still pretty far away will hold off on any watches for now. Will just keep wind advisory going for this evening and deal with winds day by day. ...Fire weather concerns through the week... RH values have fallen to 30 percent just east of the Red River, and will continue to see humidity drop off in the next few hours before starting to recover. See little reason to make changes to the current Red Flag warning. Tomorrow the winds will be much lower, but still could get some good mixing and RH values down to the 20 to 30 percent range. Will have to watch out for any SPS/HWO needed for near critical messaging. Winds return out of the south Thursday, but dew points will also be rising, so at this point it seems afternoon RH values will stay around 30 to 40 percent. Winds shifting to the west behind the trough axis on Friday will bring drier RHs and strong winds back, so will monitor for future fire headlines. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Clear skies will continue tonight into Wednesday, with high pressure bringing generally light and variable winds into the area through at least midday Wednesday. Winds will increase out of the southeast heading into the late evening, with KGFK, KFAR, and KDVL seeing the potential for gusts approaching 25 knots. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ005-006-009-017. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Lynch