FXUS66 KLOX 130930 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 230 AM PDT Wed May 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...13/229 AM. Temperatures will largely be below normal today, with low clouds widespread during the morning. Chances are high for sunshine at the beaches by the afternoon. Gusty winds are expected times across the mountains and deserts. Slight warming is expected Thursday and Friday, and above normal temperatures are possible early next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...12/1104 PM. ***UPDATE*** Continuing to see a significant disparity in temperatures from the coasts locked under marine layer clouds and the sunny inland areas. Marine layer clouds reached deep into the valleys supported by a strong onshore LAX-DAG gradient, and clouds kept the high temperatures in the cool upper 50s to low 70s. High temperatures tomorrow should be quite a bit colder over the interior tomorrow as flow shifts back to northwest over the region. This should scatter out the marine layer later on Wednesday, however, still expecting plenty of morning marine layer clouds pushing deep into the valleys, so will likely need to decrease temperatures near the coasts for Wednesday. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track. ***From Previous Discussion*** The marine layer has deepened significantly since yesterday, accounting for nearly all of the cooling trends over this time especially for coastal valleys. Low clouds will likely stick around most of the day for many areas west of the mountains thanks to strong onshore flow and strong inversion. Isolated mid level clouds have started to develop over some interior mountains. This is evidence of the weak moisture intrusion from the southeast that will support about a 5 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm to interior mountains and valleys, especially northern Ventura into northeast Santa Barbara Counties. Dry lightning fire starts and gusty winds would be the greatest concern if a thunderstorm were to form. A weak trough passing overhead will boost the marine layer another 1000 feet or so to 3000-4000 feet into Wednesday. Sending the cooling trends experienced today further inland with temperatures near normal for this time of year. The additional deepening may support spotty drizzle especially into foothill to lower mountain locals. One more day of slow to no clearing of low clouds is likely Wednesday, especially into the coastal slopes as a reverse clearing (clearing at the coast before the valleys/foothills) day is possible. Breezy northwest to southwest winds will is expected afternoon to evening, possibly boosting to near advisory levels for areas prone to northwest winds (southwest Santa Barbara County & I-5 corridor in the mountains) Wednesday evening and again as early as Friday afternoon. Weak ridging building into the region will likely shrink the marine layer closer to the coast and lead to warming trends Thursday and Friday, but no where near the heat we saw just yesterday. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...12/1256 PM. Below normal confidence this weekend into early next week as a sharp trough (for May) is poised to pass nearby. An inland track (50 percent chance) would lead to near normal temperatures with breezy winds nearing advisory levels for some interior areas such as the mountains near the I-5 corridor and southwest Santa Barbara County into Saturday or Sunday with the potential for offshore winds with decent warming and drying trends into Monday. A close pass (30 percent chance) would lead to gusty and probably advisory northerly winds for the interior and mostly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...13/0913Z. At 0702Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4500 ft with a temperature of 19 C. High confidence in VFR conditions at KPMD & KWJF through at least Tuesday. High confidence in ceilings at all other airports tonight into Tuesday, with MVFR most common. Brief IFR ceilings are possible almost everywhere 10-15Z. KLAX...Moderate confidence through 18Z Tuesday in ceiling category and timing (plus or minus 3 hours). Low confidence on timing of any clearing. High confidence in any east winds staying under 8 knots. KBUR...Moderate confidence in ceiling category and timing (plus or minus 3 hours). High confidence in any east winds staying under 8 knots. && .MARINE...13/215 AM. For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas developing Wednesday and lasting through at least Thursday Night, except for a a likely brief break Wednesday 9am to 2pm. Moderate risk of Gale Force winds as early as Friday and peaking over the weekend, with large 10+ foot steep seas. SCY conditions likely for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Thursday, with stronger winds and building seas Friday through the weekend. Winds will stay under SCY for all other waters through at least Thursday, with a moderate risk of SCY conditions by the weekend. Over the weekend...The combination of high winds and seas could result in hazardous surfing conditions and minor coastal flooding especially across more unprotected west-facing beaches such as along the Ventura coastline. Stay tuned for future updates. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/Munroe AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...RK SYNOPSIS...MW/RS weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox