FXUS65 KMSO 140906
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
306 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Unsettled, cool, and showery conditions persist through the
   rest of the week and into the weekend.

-  Winter Weather Advisory for the Glacier Region continues
   through 3pm Thursday, primarily for backcountry travelers and
   minor travel impacts at Marias Pass.

-  Frost and Freeze potential is being monitored for Sunday
   through Tuesday mornings following a recent warm stretch.

The Northern Rockies remain under cool zonal flow as a trough
departs to the east. This pattern will maintain breezy west-to-
northwest winds across the region through at least Thursday
afternoon, with gusts generally reaching up to 30 mph.
Precipitation will be rather showery and largely terrain-focused.

The Winter Weather Advisory for the Glacier Park region remains
in effect through Thursday afternoon. While snow levels near 5,000
feet may cause minor accumulation and slushy travel over Marias
Pass, the primary concern is the raw, blustery environment. Cold
temperatures and wind chills pose a significant hypothermia risk
for backcountry recreationists.

A reinforcing trough is forecast to drop southward from the
Pacific Northwest and British Columbia Saturday into Sunday. This
system will keep temperatures well below seasonal norms and lower
snow levels to approximately 4,000 feet by Saturday afternoon.
Pass travel and higher elevations may see minor snow impacts
during this window.

As the trough exits to the south and east, winds will transition
to a more northerly direction Sunday into Monday. With the region
coming off a period of unseasonably warm weather, the threat of
impacts due to frost and freezing temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday mornings is high. Sensitive vegetation and early-season
plantings will be at risk across much of the region.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR weather conditions will generally prevail, though
periodic mountain obscurations and MVFR ceilings are expected
within the vicinity of shower activity. A gusty west-northwest
gradient remains the primary concern with daytime gusts of 20-25
knots at most terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for West
     Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$